ATL: FIONA - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Maybe we all better take a nap and stay up for the 00z EURO.

[Vortex]

Notice the trend...folks in fl/bahamas better keep extremely close tabs on this one...I'd bet with tonights package the other globals begin trending more west...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like a little weakness in between the bermuda high building in behind Earl to the west and the midwest high of the US to the west around 144hrs. Also a weak trough trying to drop down the NE states. Doubt it is near strong enough to influence "Fiona" much, maybe a turn more wnw but then the high over the central US should move further east towards the east coast and block much northward motion keeping her on a westerly course across FL into the gulf. The Euro seems to be targeting this area now and does not look good. As I said a couple of days ago the pucker factor is starting to go up each run it shows this.

[Ivanhater]

192 hours...in the Gulf

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291841
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100829 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  1800   100830  0600   100830  1800   100831  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  38.4W   14.2N  41.7W   14.9N  45.7W   15.7N  50.1W
BAMD    13.5N  38.4W   13.7N  41.7W   14.1N  45.2W   14.7N  48.9W
BAMM    13.5N  38.4W   13.7N  41.8W   14.2N  45.7W   14.7N  49.5W
LBAR    13.5N  38.4W   13.7N  41.8W   13.9N  45.5W   14.2N  49.3W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          45KTS          54KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          45KTS          54KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  1800   100901  1800   100902  1800   100903  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  54.6W   22.2N  62.1W   31.3N  64.8W   38.5N  58.1W
BAMD    15.5N  52.3W   17.2N  59.2W   19.6N  65.8W   21.1N  70.6W
BAMM    15.6N  53.4W   18.5N  60.5W   22.7N  66.4W   26.5N  69.3W
LBAR    14.8N  53.4W   16.9N  60.2W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        63KTS          77KTS          85KTS          88KTS
DSHP        63KTS          77KTS          85KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  38.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  34.5W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  30.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[I-wall]

120 hours..much further south than last night

IvanHater, why do you think the euro keeps 97L so weak, even at 120 hours? Outflow from Earl? The southward trend seems concerning, but the intensity forecast seems to be the silver lining.

Keep in mind that intensity forecasting is nothing more than a shot in the dark. It is bar far the LEAST accurate of the forecast package.

I understand there is little skill in intensity forecasts. A forecast is still a forecast though.

[bob rulz]

Jeez, at this rate the 00Z run will drive Fiona southwest across the Caribbean and into Central America.

In all seriousness though it's pretty remarkable how rapidly the models are swinging west on this run. Florida and maybe even the Gulf Coast have to keep a close eye on how this one evolves.

[GeneratorPower]

Just watch it head for New Orleans. Once it's in the Gulf it can't escape without affecting someone.

[I-wall]

It show 969 MB...not weak at all. It may come in weaker in the next few frames with it going over Cuba though

Gotcha. I thought I saw a 990's number.

[Vortex]

The euro is on to something...It completely abandoned the recurve camp for the last 3 runs...

[Vortex]

btw ivan, thanks for posting those images..Always great work...

[Ivanhater]

216 in the SE Gulf heading WNW

[I-wall]

Looks like an Ike 2008 track

I was thinking the same thing

[BigB0882]

I've had a feeling about this getting into the Gulf, may or may not happen but it certainly gets my attentions when models, even if only one or two, begin to show it.

[Duke95]

It show 969 MB...not weak at all. It may come in weaker in the next few frames with it going over Cuba though

Gotcha. I thought I saw a 990's number.

You did. It shows 996 at 120 hours.

[Ikester]

The euro has been crappy the last few weeks. I wouldn't put all my eggs in its basket. You have 2 VERY DIFFERENT solutions showing between the gfs and the euro and the fact is there will be some kind of weakness left behind from Danielle and Earl. How big remains to be seen. While the euro solution certainly gets my attention, I'm not ready to shout GOM yet....though it's looking more and more like a possibility.

[blp]

This run validates last nights west shift. I think the rest of the models will begin to follow suit. Until proven wrong you can't go against the EURO with the long range pattern. I learned that with Ike and many others.

[Ivanhater]

216..957 mb

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lets not forget it was the euro that kept showing Alex moving west into northern Mexico, when other models kept showing further north into the mid/upper TX coast even a couple into LA.

[GeneratorPower]

The euro has been crappy the last few weeks. I wouldn't put all my eggs in its basket. You have 2 VERY DIFFERENT solutions showing between the gfs and the euro and the fact is there will be some kind of weakness left behind from Danielle and Earl. How big remains to be seen. While the euro solution certainly gets my attention, I'm not ready to shout GOM yet....though it's looking more and more like a possibility.

Yeah, you're right about the Euro and GFS being different. But how many times has the Euro had to "catch up" to the GFS solution? I can't remember any. Not one time. I remember dozens of times where the GFS finally catches on about 2 days after the Euro sniffs something out correctly.