ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[AJC3]

love the way GFS likes to plow ridges....

You're looking at the surface and 850 MB ridges as a proxy for steering flow, which is a huge mistake in this case (assuming the surface cyclone is that strong and vertically deep).

The GFS is certainly not plowing the cyclone into the ridge at a level that would be steering it (i.e. 500 MB). The model is turning it northward toward a breach in that ridge caused by a short wave trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Whether or not this verifies that far down the road remains to be seen, of course. However, the GFS solution makes perfect sense for the 500MB pattern that it's showing, given a cyclone of that strength.

[ROCK]

Yeah I don't think it's going to make a difference if the storm is too far north to begin with, if it stays south of 30N when the ridge builds, than maybe, but not any further north. I'm very confident that this will be a fish spinner, there's no doubt in my mind. I think the models will trend east today starting with the latest gfs.

we shall see....remember the GFS is not the all knowing, all seeing model some tend to rely on. Especially for intensity.....

the problem I have with that run though it initialized well...it wants to have this gain lat right into a 1023H.....that doesnt seem plausible IMO....

[cycloneye]

The models are going to be moot if this decouples as it is doing right now and TD 6 is history.

[ROCK]

love the way GFS likes to plow ridges....

You're looking at the surface and 850 MB ridges as a proxy for steering flow, which is a huge mistake in this case (assuming the surface cyclone is that strong and vertically deep).

The GFS is certainly not plowing the cyclone into the ridge at a level that would be steering it (i.e. 500 MB). The model is turning it northward toward a breach in that ridge caused by a short wave trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Whether or not this verifies that far down the road remains to be seen, of course. However, the GFS solution makes perfect sense for the 500MB pattern that it's showing, given a cyclone of that strength.

Ah, I stand corrected....I was using the 850MB to show ridge placement..but still having a hard time seeing this gain any lat in the short term in its current state....

[KWT]

The models are going to be moot if this decouples as it is doing right now and TD 6 is history.

Well quite a few of the models were slow to strengthen this, the ECM infact barely did anything with it all till day 5 so you've gotta wonder whether it was correct in keeping it weak in the last few runs....ECM proving how good it is!

[Riptide]

Any updates from the Canadian or NOGAPS?

[Vortex]

12 CMC Feels the weakness than the ridge and bends back WNW...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

cmc builds in a much stronger ridge at the end of the run when compared to the 00Z. The point is all globals are really building in the ridge over the NE/Western Atlantic late week and where Danielle is will mean everthing...The trend is whats important right now...

[Riptide]

12 CMC Feels the weakness than the ridge and bends back WNW...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

An interesting occurrence considering the 0z CMC was recurving it entirely.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[terrapintransit]

[Vortex]

Nogaps very slow to update on the 12Z...I'm quite interested in this run as the synoptics and initialization appear on par. Also, like the fact that this model was never overly zealous with development early on...

[Ivanhater]

Lol, well I tell you one thing. TD6 is in no hurry to stack and strengthen right now. Possibly even a center reformation further west under the MLC. Looking at trends here.

[ROCK]

Lol, well I tell you one thing. TD6 is in no hurry to stack and strengthen right now. Possibly even a center reformation further west under the MLC. Looking at trends here.

agree...makes some of these models moot if it does get its act together.....

[Vortex]

Agree Ivan,

Eastely shear very evident on the WV..Also notice the stable air entraining from the north...Going to take some time to mix out and get going...Im going with a weaker solution through 48h. Short term im sticking with the ECM and Nogaps based on trends...

[KWT]

Yep Ianhater, of course the other option is the LLC refires convection and the MLC dies and then the system is already as far north as the models prog in 2 days time...and that really would make a world of difference.

CMC is interesting but looks to me to have enough northward motion to recurve.

[hurricaneCW]

Yep Ianhater, of course the other option is the LLC refires convection and the MLC dies and then the system is already as far north as the models prog in 2 days time...and that really would make a world of difference.

CMC is interesting but looks to me to have enough northward motion to recurve.

You're really hoping it recurves, don't you. I can't blame you, I'm in that same boat too, but now I'm not even sure if it'll even get it's act together.

[vacanechaser]

ho hum...let me break thru this ridge and head on out.....

I have seen enough....

no kidding... lol... very odd looking... i doubt that will happen!!! lol

edit: oopss.. looked at wrong level too rock... lol.. not good for steering... lol



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

You're really hoping it recurves, don't you. I can't blame you, I'm in that same boat too, but now I'm not even sure if it'll even get it's act together.

Nah I was just pointing out another poossible solution that could happen, esp given the LLC still has strong turning een if it is weakening...usually the LLC wins out against the MLC in terms of what one develops, as we saw in Pre-Alex.

Wonder what the ECM will look like!

[Vortex]

12Z GFDL/HWRF out soon...Nogaps 12z still not updating....

[Ivanhater]

HWRF still bending west..and yes, this is the models with the usual northern bias...