ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think this will be a Florida storm. Given the eventual gains in latitude, any impact is likely to be north of Florida if at all. I'm still fairly confident this will be a fish storm. The recent northward movement makes it even more likely because the further north it gets, the more likely it will recurve. I'm not so sure about the intensity and the shear abating. Every storm except Alex has had to deal with shear and the shear never decreased. I hope the shear does decrease because the models have strongly suggested a strengthening storm.

It would be a shame to track a system 2 weeks out in advance only to have it end up being a puny tropical storm. That alone is enough to cease my interests in this year's hurricane season.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

??..I wonder that myself?the LLC is looking almost NNW?strange season.....

Looking at the VIS floater, I see the LLC headed off to the NNW and weakening (like a remnant swirl)...but looking at the sheared blob of convection just west, seems there is a large mid-level rotation there headed nearly due west. I think it could work its way down and become the new LLC...with a center relocation possible. The easterly shear is not only keeping this system in check but pushing it more west in my opinion. Some of the globals never saw this shear coming (like the GFS):

Link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

2010 shows up once again, meaning systems going thru a very slow developing proccess. Cam you imagine if this stays as a TD and doesn't develop further?

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

??..I wonder that myself?the LLC is looking almost NNW?strange season.....

Looking at the VIS floater, I see the LLC headed off to the NNW and weakening (like a remnant swirl)...but looking at the sheared blob of convection just west, seems there is a large mid-level rotation there headed nearly due west. I think it could work its way down and become the new LLC...with a center relocation possible. The easterly shear is not only keeping this system in check but pushing it more west in my opinion. Some of the globals never saw this shear coming (like the GFS):

Link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

To me it looks as if the center is going to rotate back into the convection or get pulled back into the convection as the system heads off to the wnw

[cpdaman]

looking at the larger picture...despite td 6's peekaboo.... it looks like the vorticity to the NE of td 6 ..may have just committed hari kari.....

the convection from that vorticity center seems to have transformmed into outerbands of td 6......now it's time to get some convection back under center and for the center to move back to the WNW.

[plasticup]

Looks like the NHC is leaning less towards a recurve, very interesting indeed:

We were talking about this in the "Models" thread. The global models are starting to show a ridge cutting this storm off before it can properly recurve (days 6-7), which would push it back west. Typically, that is the pattern that drives storms into the eastern seaboard. Beyond 5 days the models start losing their usefulness, but it is an interesting thought.

[gatorcane]

well the longer it takes to deepen, the more west is likely to get....

[summersquall]

Hearing Frances several times is troubling to this Treasure Coast resident. Was out on Hutchinson Island just this am where Frances made landfall. Tract does look very similar but highly unlikely that the synoptic set up will be identical. All of us along the EC (and our friends in Bermuda) need to watch this closely over the next several days. But I'm not filling my generator gas supply just yet.

[Javlin]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

??..I wonder that myself?the LLC is looking almost NNW?strange season.....

Looking at the VIS floater, I see the LLC headed off to the NNW and weakening (like a remnant swirl)...but looking at the sheared blob of convection just west, seems there is a large mid-level rotation there headed nearly due west. I think it could work its way down and become the new LLC...with a center relocation possible. The easterly shear is not only keeping this system in check but pushing it more west in my opinion. Some of the globals never saw this shear coming (like the GFS):

Link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The way this season has been GC anything is possible for sure.The ULL that is out front to the N would seem to help with some kind of ridging??I thought as LP moves out HP fills back in quickly??Now if it collides with the trof coming off the EC wouldn't it move to the NE and then create the weakness needed and then if they are close enough have an effect.

[ConvergenceZone]

2010 shows up once again, meaning systems going thru a very slow developing proccess. Cam you imagine if this stays as a TD and doesn't develop further?

Wow, if that were to happen Luis, I would definately think about calling this season a bust. Bottom line, if this depression can't get going,
then I don't think anything will be able to....This system will be a gauge of what type of season the rest of the season may be...

[plasticup]

All of us along the EC (and our friends in Bermuda) need to watch this closely over the next several days.

I am visiting my parents in Bermuda on September 3rd. There's a good chance I'll be helping them clear debris from the yard - not the vacation I hoped for

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed in the latest disccussion that the NHC seems much less bullish on this becoming a major cane over the next few days, giving it a 1 and 5 chance...They are citing the dry and stable air to the North....

[Blown Away]

The day, time, and track are very similar to Frances. 6 years ago Frances was supposed to recurve also. Still think TD5 will be a fish based on the current model consensus, it will be interesting to see the 18z models.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

A more southerly track would mean better conditions too which would support a stronger storm.

[cycloneye]

Seeing that image,the question arises about if it is decoupled or is only the center exposed.

[Vortex]

Folks,

The current state of the system is more concerning(longer term) in the fact it will allow the system to get further west...A few days ago the Euro indicated this system may not be so robust early on as other models indicated. Once that ridging builds in to the North mid week it's coming west for some time and how far north it gets prior to bending back west will have HUGE implications..

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Seeing that image,the question arises about if it is decoupled or is only the center exposed.

It only looks like an exposed center since the banding looks quite solid. If convection can build around the core then I see it rapidly deepening. Once west of 40W conditions improve dramatically.

[caribepr]

Watching and waiting from Maine

[ConvergenceZone]

Folks,

The current state of the system is more concerning(longer term) in the fact it will allow the system to get further west...A few days ago the Euro indicated this system may not be so robust early on as other models indicated. Once that ridging builds in to the North mid week it's coming west for some time and how far north it gets prior to bending back west will have HUGE implications..

You might be right about that Vortex.....It will be interesting to see if the track is pushed even more westward on the next advisory due to the slow development.