ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[lrak]

Wow the visible satellite is awesome, this is a strange invest

Looks like an A bomb going off.

[Frank P]

Well it looks pretty crappy to me on the IR loop... convection losing it fast close to where the center should be... systems pulse, on the decline now and maybe it will re-fire later tonight.. but I have not been impressed with this system for the past two days... but ya never know and that's why we watch em...

[HURAKAN]

Well it looks pretty crappy to me on the IR loop... convection losing it fast close to where the center should be... systems pulse, on the decline now and maybe it will re-fire later tonight.. but I have not been impressed with this system for the past two days... but ya never know and that's why we watch em...

We should look for an increase in convection over or near the center as the low moves over water. Remember that the system is over land.

[Frank P]

Well it looks pretty crappy to me on the IR loop... convection losing it fast close to where the center should be... systems pulse, on the decline now and maybe it will re-fire later tonight.. but I have not been impressed with this system for the past two days... but ya never know and that's why we watch em...

We should look for an increase in convection over or near the center as the low moves over water. Remember that the system is over land.

Good point, and at least on the IR loop, with the color off, it does show a pretty good spin with this system... not sure how much is at the surface but spin it definitely has tonight... this thing might go right where Alex when last week.. who knows..

[HURAKAN]

a broad LLC may be present according to the wind direction

[ROCK]

I think it looks better now than it has since conception...somebody pointed out that the low level swirl looked to get sucked back into the MLC area. I have to agree. Tonight looks different though as far as convection. Every other night it would lose convection not build it.....It has the look IMO...

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be doing good in the divergence and convergence department

[ozonepete]

a broad LLC may be present according to the wind direction

As usual, good observation, Hurakan. This RGB satellite shows the really broad center coming off of the Yucatan. Notice also, as Ivanhater and others were saying, that there is another vorticity center/kinetic energy max north of this low which is impeding a rapid buildup. Hmmm... Remind you of anything recent? Like Alex? The pattern looks very similar. That makes me think this will get to TS pretty fast but then get prevented from further quick intensification due to it's elongated stucture. Really rapid intensification won't occur until the other vorticity max dissipates or they consolidate. (Doubt they will ever consolidate.)

[srainhoutx]

Just lacking deep tropical convection at this time. Notice the dry air to the W decreasing...

[redfish1]

is it possible for 96L to pull the low pressure to north of it into it? And will the low pressure to the north affect 96L's track?

[Ivanhater]

Thunderstorms collapsing around the MLC. I'm not sold on this one yet but tomorrow may be a different story

[Dean4Storms]

The water extending out for at least 75 miles north and west of the Yucatan is pretty cool water, don't know if it will help this Invest much the first 1/2 day it emerges over it.

[wxman57]

Convection weakening and becoming less organized. Surface obs don't show any LLC forming. Don't mistake land/sea breezes for a broad circulation. That feature to the north closer to the LA coast appears to be robbing energy from 96L. Development chances still appear low.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity co-located with the MLC

[ConvergenceZone]

It does look a little bit better, I understand them upping the chances to 40% now.


Here's a question, while I know that this sytem won't develop into anything big if it does develop, I'm curious, have there ever been any hurricanes that have developed from a wave without ANY model support at all? I suppose only a Met will probably know this, but I'm curious....

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, once wxman57 speaks about the wave's very small chance of development, the thread gets silent.......

[wxman57]

It does look a little bit, I understand then upping the chances to 40% now.


Here's a question, while I know that this sytem won't develop into anything big if it does develop, I'm curious, have there ever been any hurricanes that have developed from a wave without ANY model support at all? I suppose only a Met will probably know this, but I'm curious....

Just be wary that Stacey Stewart is known for estimating development chances quite a bit higher than others. I see nothing to indicate an increasing chance of development, perhaps even the opposite.

As for your question, it's a bit ambiguous. Define "any model support". Models didn't forecast Alex to become a hurricane for quite a few runs.

[funster]

I think this one will develop. It is in a favorable location and it has plenty of time to at least to get a TS status before landfall. Wish there was a floater on it.

[ozonepete]

It does look a little bit better, I understand them upping the chances to 40% now.


Here's a question, while I know that this sytem won't develop into anything big if it does develop, I'm curious, have there ever been any hurricanes that have developed from a wave without ANY model support at all? I suppose only a Met will probably know this, but I'm curious....

If you exclude the CMC ( ) there have definitely been some small fast developers that were missed. Like Humberto in 2007. The models have problems picking up small waves (or remnant cold front lows) that move into really favorable conditions quickly.

edited to add the remnant lows...

[ozonepete]

Convection weakening and becoming less organized. Surface obs don't show any LLC forming. Don't mistake land/sea breezes for a broad circulation. That feature to the north closer to the LA coast appears to be robbing energy from 96L. Development chances still appear low.

Good advice. But you don't possibly think that the east to northeast winds a hundred miles north of the northern Yucatan have anything to do with land or sea breezes, right?