ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

This one is not going to Texas. Being so small and dry on the west side, you will not see any effects from this one

[dhweather]

which way is it moving right now?

Looks northwest to west-northwest. Hugging the coastline.

if thats the case we may get some of this in southeast texas....am i right or wrong?

minimal affect in SE Texas. The low is moving northwest, and there is very little weather to the west of the center of this low.

[KWT]

I'm not sure Hurakan, the NHC may yet decide to upgrade it but I'd have thought the more likely solution is they hold it for another 6hrs, if it hasn't developed by then, then they'll probably go down to nothing since it'll be inland.

[Steve]

Big surge out of the SE which you can see if you zoom the visible to the +/- middle of the storm. That's the current alley way in. Also looks like cloud tops are blossoming and bubbling near the circulation as well as off of the FL Panhandle and south of AL and MS which could bring some nice rain into all 4 states if said moisture holds together before dying off later tonight. You never know with the weaker systems as sometimes the moisture mostly stays offshore and sometimes it ends up walloping you. Doesn't look like anything serious but it's still cool.

Animate to 15 and speed up and you can see the juice coming from the SE enhancing the convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Dean4Storms]

I think all this is going to amount to is a Thunderstorm with a Waterspout and that is about all the effects once it moves onshore!

[KWT]

Indeed Dean, its probably going to be no worse then a decent Multicell storm cluster. It'll be most interesting to see whether they consider it for upgrade post season...

[Ivanhater]

Staying offshore

[HURAKAN]

Love when they take their time to issue the TWO. It's like a suspense movie!!! LOL

[Cryomaniac]

Love when they take their time to issue the TWO. It's like a suspense movie!!! LOL

It also sometimes mean that the situation isn't trivial.

[KWT]

Loks like its pretty much at the coast Ivanhater, but its sure taking its time to finally plunge inland I have to admit looking at the radar compared to what speed it has been moving at.

[tailgater]

Staying offshore

Does someone here know what those numbers and letters mean? Explain please!

[HURAKAN]

Replacement required!!! LOL

[Ivanhater]

Loks like its pretty much at the coast Ivanhater, but its sure taking its time to finally plunge inland I have to admit looking at the radar compared to what speed it has been moving at.

Remember this part of the coast is marshland, so that won't hurt it.

[vacanechaser]

Replacement required!!! LOL

lol... was thinking the same thing



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Loks like its pretty much at the coast Ivanhater, but its sure taking its time to finally plunge inland I have to admit looking at the radar compared to what speed it has been moving at.

Remember this part of the coast is marshland, so that won't hurt it.

Fair enough, I can't see I have a great knowledge of the geography and lay of the land in SW LA to be honest!

Probably has another 6hrs to get upgraded, the NHC could well yet upgrade overland but we shall see, esp if convection holds and the circulation is obvious from inland reports.

[HURAKAN]

7 mins and not even the EPAC has been issued that should be copy and paste.

[hockeytim19]

...suspense is killing me... I feel a TD coming...

[vacanechaser]

7 mins and not even the EPAC has been issued that should be copy and paste.

i am assuming stewart is still in there... he is always slow with it and esp. when there is something like this nearing the coast...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tailgater]

If you go this site and uncheck everything except the radar, then zoom in, then click on AUTO-matic refresh it saves on the F5.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

906
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI