ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Can anyone tell me what looks good about this loop? All I see is 95% of the convection, moving rapidly off to the NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Its not that impressive, its just in the first stages possibly of something trying to develop with the broad low south of Jamaica right now.

By the way the GFDL really doesn't look much different to Hurricane Audrey. I'd be shocked if it even got close to that strength but just a little tibit there with a storm heading due north from the Yucatan region.

[Aquawind]

Ok Now I see a naked swirl near the surface ~77W 16N .. Closest to a LLC I have seen of yet.. Near the area AFM mentioned I see. That's all I needed to do was leave for a bit like jason mentioned..lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Ah I think you've found the western edge of that broad low, if you look you can see the whole broad low circulating with the convection developing on the western side of the circulation, any tighter low I'd imagine would form near the convection if it can hold and develop a MLC.

I will be watching for the convection to continue to fire up and persist near this area.. It still has a ways to go but, at least we can see some obvious surface rotation and convection nearby. Patience... although from reading some of the previous model and observation posts it's not looking good and I can only assume the NHC confidence will start growing again..

[Florida1118]

Very true. I remember in 2004 I sat through Charley, Frances, And Jeanne and waiting was the only thnig you could do. Just wait and hope.

[jasons2k]

Ok Now I see a naked swirl near the surface ~77W 16N .. Closest to a LLC I have seen of yet.. Near the area AFM mentioned I see. That's all I needed to do was leave for a bit like jason mentioned..lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

LOL, yes I am back and needed the break The long day was just starting to get to me. This one's about like watching paint dry...but aren't most of them? It's gonna be a long week ahead, and I think the pro-mets working the oil contracts are about to punch-in for a string of sleepless nights.

[HURAKAN]

LOL

[HURAKAN]

The high pressure is right over the vorticity

[Florida1118]

GFS now is picking up 93...

[Blown Away]

Deeper convection is building around the MLC near 17.5N/73W and diminishing around the 00z position. Just an observation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Aquawind]

Ok Now I see a naked swirl near the surface ~77W 16N .. Closest to a LLC I have seen of yet.. Near the area AFM mentioned I see. That's all I needed to do was leave for a bit like jason mentioned..lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

LOL, yes I am back and needed the break The long day was just starting to get to me. This one's about like watching paint dry...but aren't most of them? It's gonna be a long week ahead, and I think the pro-mets working the oil contracts are about to punch-in for a string of sleepless nights.

This swirl watch has been difficult with such condusive conditions and the anticipation of a nasty season but, as you said most of them are paint watchers at first. The graveyard cannot be denied no matter how strong the wave evidently and climatology cannot be ignored. This season looks like a climatology number changer and I think that is going to make this season a tough time for the Mets involved alright.

[weatherSnoop]

Models continue to push the possible system east. Tampa/Miami AFDs say almost nothing about the system or that it will even in the smallest possibility come close to them. Still To early to tell but I think this is a Texas Storm.

Oh they will talk about it..until it goes past their lat. Tampa needs to be talking about anyway...

I know I am doing my part...lil ole me spreading the word to pay attention

[Aquawind]

Deeper convection is building around the MLC near 17.5N/73W and diminishing around the 00z position. Just an observation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

I am just hoping the serious blob trying to push into Haiti does not make it..When/if it does dissipate 93L will have a good chance of organizing a LLC. Unfortunately it looks like 93L has no good way out.. poofing aside.

[clfenwi]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

[I-wall]

Looks like convection is trying to re-fire around the MLC....I also see some convection trying to generate where the sharp wave axis is.

Where is the wave axis located?

[Aquawind]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

Hmmm they are confident it's all happening closer to the convection..not good.

[Florida1118]

Models continue to push the possible system east. Tampa/Miami AFDs say almost nothing about the system or that it will even in the smallest possibility come close to them. Still To early to tell but I think this is a Texas Storm.

Oh they will talk about it..until it goes past their lat. Tampa needs to be talking about anyway...

I know I am doing my part...lil ole me spreading the word to pay attention

Models now pushing west... Still on all local channels here in Tampa, Every station Downcast this Invest severely and saying it will not come to Florida or even make it past Jamaica at all what so ever. On TWC, they just said" This is a very poorly organized system and should not develop because uppers are far to high".... I guess they didnt look just west of the system...

[cycloneye]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

What happened there with that kind of separaton between the two? Now we have to figure out which one will be the trigger if it ever develops.

[HURAKAN]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

This may explain how they got those numbers

[Aquawind]

[I-wall]

The high pressure is right over the vorticity

Things should really pick up then, right?

[HURAKAN]

Things should really pick up then, right?

"should" is the imperative word!!