ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[jinftl]

With a few hours to landfall, what would a watch do? If anything, a hurricane warning would be needed since it is immiment in terms of occurring. Luckily, she will run out of water before that could happen.

A close-in storm to land like this is the kind that must frighten forecasters and local officials most....there is not much time to prepare. Thankfully Claudette didn't get another 12-24 hours over water or we could be talking a hurricane landfall where yesterday there was no depression even.

I would have put out a Hurricane Watch from Apalachicola to Destin personally, since I think the intensity and potential is cutting it too close.

[CrazyC83]

With a few hours to landfall, what would a watch do? If anything, a hurricane warning would be needed since it is immiment in terms of occurring. Luckily, she will run out of water before that could happen.

I would have put out a Hurricane Watch from Apalachicola to Destin personally, since I think the intensity and potential is cutting it too close.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch (in that situation) would make clear that tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible. It is certainly no guarantee that it will become a hurricane, but I wouldn't count it out if it goes more left than expected. The key point is Indian Pass - if it goes west of there, it has at least 3 hours extra over water.

[aOl]

Speaking of hurricane/tropical storm watches and warnings, I'd really like to see the criteria redefined. I think basing whether it's a watch or a warning mainly on the amount of time before those conditions are expected isn't the best use of the product. I hope NHC will reevaluate this at some point and base the watch/warning criteria on probabilities alone.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161804
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20090816
175730 2829N 08418W 9249 00818 0172 +175 +070 164043 043 046 015 00
175800 2828N 08417W 9249 00819 0172 +175 +071 162042 043 047 015 00
175830 2827N 08417W 9246 00823 0175 +169 +072 162037 039 046 015 00
175900 2826N 08417W 9124 00938 0190 +162 +074 162040 042 999 999 03
175930 2825N 08415W 8779 01283 0197 +151 +074 168041 041 999 999 03
180000 2824N 08414W 8463 01599 0199 +133 +067 176038 040 047 014 03
180030 2823N 08413W 8405 01661 0207 +125 +058 179037 038 048 016 00
180100 2822N 08411W 8435 01635 0209 +126 +053 181039 039 048 017 00
180130 2821N 08409W 8432 01635 0211 +125 +051 178036 037 048 018 03
180200 2820N 08408W 8431 01639 0211 +128 +050 173033 034 050 017 00
180230 2820N 08406W 8432 01640 0212 +128 +050 173032 033 047 018 00
180300 2819N 08404W 8429 01642 0212 +130 +050 173032 033 047 016 00
180330 2818N 08403W 8429 01643 0214 +128 +050 174034 035 044 016 00
180400 2817N 08401W 8429 01643 0212 +131 +051 174036 036 044 014 00
180430 2816N 08400W 8429 01645 0211 +137 +052 174040 041 043 014 00
180500 2815N 08358W 8433 01640 0207 +143 +053 172037 039 042 011 00
180530 2814N 08357W 8431 01645 0204 +148 +054 165033 033 041 011 00
180600 2813N 08355W 8427 01648 0203 +151 +056 163034 035 042 011 00
180630 2812N 08353W 8431 01646 0201 +153 +060 167035 038 043 009 03
180700 2811N 08352W 8433 01641 0211 +139 +061 167033 034 043 013 00
$$
;

Ascended to 850mb, not sure if that was really necessary with a 1008mb storm but I guess they thought it was more stable up there?

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure - the pressure is really high for its intensity, which makes sense as this sits in a ridge and is quite small. I think if it reaches hurricane status, it would still do so in the high 990s (near 1000mb).

[jinftl]

That makes sense. I think in this case, there is luckily not enough of a chance of hurricane conditions (and that doesn't mean gusts to hurricane force....rather, sustained hurricane force winds) to merit a watch. I have 100% confidence the NHC would have done just what you describe if they believed there was, even erring on the side of caution. Plus, they could still do that at any time if needed.

With a few hours to landfall, what would a watch do? If anything, a hurricane warning would be needed since it is immiment in terms of occurring. Luckily, she will run out of water before that could happen.

I would have put out a Hurricane Watch from Apalachicola to Destin personally, since I think the intensity and potential is cutting it too close.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch (in that situation) would make clear that tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible. It is certainly no guarantee that it will become a hurricane, but I wouldn't count it out if it goes more left than expected. The key point is Indian Pass - if it goes west of there, it has at least 3 hours extra over water.

[margiek]

Ascended to 850mb, not sure if that was really necessary with a 1008mb storm but I guess they thought it was more stable up there?

maybe this is required once a TS? i know they must go to 700 when a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

for those in the area, go to PNJ.com. There you will find audio updates under the stormwatch blog. I tried to keep them similar to the old style TWC special updates

[pojo]

Ascended to 850mb, not sure if that was really necessary with a 1008mb storm but I guess they thought it was more stable up there?

thats normal.

[fwbbreeze]

appears to be wobbling a bit to the west...dont wobble to much or it will find itself over water longer!

[sea oat]

Thank you for the audio update Derek!

[aOl]

The center continues to become more poorly defined on radar.. seems to be a much broader CoC at this time compared to earlier. Don't know if this indicates reformation of the center or not at this point.

[Ivanhater]

CoC SSW of Apalachicola now..

[jinftl]

The center is located at 29.1N, 85.1W.....just north of the main blob of convection....only about 30 or 40 miles from land...it will get some more time over water if it is moving more nw than nnw....but if the center was even 60 miles south of where it actually is (in the blob around 28N), there would be more concern of this intensifying significantly.

[fwbbreeze]

Hey Ivan, the radar shot shows the westward movement. Hopefully its short lived

[CrazyC83]

Missing nearly an hour of data - computer problems on the flight?

[stormy1970al]

From the Eastern Shore of Alabama (about 28 miles north of Gulf Shores, AL) it is just starting to cloud up a little and windy but it could also be just normal afternoon storms forming. Still watching anything that gets in the Gulf this close to home.

[jinftl]

Being on the west side of Claudette will keep you on the weaker side....the windfield is very lop-sided and ts winds are mainly on the east side (along with the rain).

From the Eastern Shore of Alabama (about 28 miles north of Gulf Shores, AL) it is just starting to cloud up a little and windy but it could also be just normal afternoon storms forming. Still watching anything that gets in the Gulf this close to home.

[pojo]

Missing nearly an hour of data - computer problems on the flight?

most likely.

[Dionne]

Inland areas of Alabama now under a tropical wind warning? On the radar there are numerous pop ups in Alabama that appear to be moving NNW.......are they part of Claudette?