ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Tropics Guy]

We'll see Paula by 5PM.

bout time............

TG

[ronjon]

We'll see Paula by 5PM.

I'd expect a special annoucement prior to 5 PM once all RECON data is analysed, given that advisories need to be issued.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Paula at 5 pm.

Center looks to be right near the beaches. I would put it at 45 kt, with a pressure of 1001mb (based on adjusting the SFMR to that 1002.5 reading).

The TWO says 98L is moving NW so it should pull away from the coast and continue organizing. Paula is on her way IMO.

[cycloneye]

Look for renumber to AL18 at anytime.

[Brent]

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, TS, 3

[DESTRUCTION5]

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, TS, 3

GFS Going Wilma like in 5 days....Well course from what you can see from the GFS resolution...

[hurricaneCW]

The storm is literally just offshore so maybe they wouldn't give it a name at 5PM because it would be weakening due to proximity to land if not a landfall. However, it's important to get the warnings out because it is just off the coast so they should have just given out a special advisory with the name at 2PM instead of the 100% TWO.

[fci]

The TWO should be coming out soon. It should say either 100% chance or a Special Advisory forthcoming.

have there ever been two Special TWOs (or Special Tropical Weather Statements) between any two scheduled TWOs?

EJ: You seem to have an affinity for Special Statements. You mention them quite frequently and seem to crave them.

[x-y-no]

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, TS, 3

GFS Going Wilma like in 5 days....Well course from what you can see from the GFS resolution...

What? Are we looking at the same run?

12Z GFS has a weak system looping in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Honduras for the next nine days, then takes off NE strengthening past eastern SFL.

[senorpepr]

Stand by... reverted back to a disturbance on ATCF:

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, DB,

[gatorcane]

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, TS, 3

GFS Going Wilma like in 5 days....Well course from what you can see from the GFS resolution...

What? Are we looking at the same run?

12Z GFS has a weak system looping in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Honduras for the next nine days, then takes off NE strengthening past eastern SFL.

I would say the FL Keys and Southern FL get slammed looking at this...and the model is far out there so the exact track will change

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al182010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010111814
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[northjaxpro]

Tropical Storm Paula now has been born.

[cycloneye]

Paula!!

Best Track with the new identification of AL18

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 18, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 157N, 837W, 40, 1001, TS

[Cyclone1]

First time this name has ever been used, but Paul, Paulina, and Paloma all have bad histories.

[Blown Away]

AL, 98, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 156N, 837W, 40, 1002, TS, 3

GFS Going Wilma like in 5 days....Well course from what you can see from the GFS resolution...

You mean developing in the NW Caribbean, not affecting SFL in 5 days.

[gatorcane]

SHIPS brings this to hurricane status....

Models jumping on board now it appears after not being bullish on development over the weekend and late last week.

Probably the few times this season the models were generally wrong.

You cannot live and die by the models

[x-y-no]

I would say the FL Keys and Southern FL get slammed looking at this...and the model is far out there so the exact track will change

...

Yes, but D5 said "going Wilma in 5 days" - that run is a lot weaker than Wilma and it's a lot longer out than 5 days.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at pressures of 1001 mb coming in from Recon and surface winds at least of 40 -45 kts, it seems tropical cyclone Paula may possibly be steadily increasing in intensity as well. Once the center drifts farther away from the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua into the Gulf of Honduras, I look for this system to intensify to cat 1 hurricane as early as possibly tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

If it moves away from the shore, LOOK OUT. The water there is capable of explosive deepening.