ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[plasticup]

12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

That is not good...Could put the heaviest rainfall close to the metro areas.

has the center going over Lake Okeechobee, see my post in the model thread with graphic.

Remember when Fay went over Lake O? It was like a storm on amphetamines

[gatorcane]

GFS is further west on this run...interesting. As members have noted, it may mean alot more rain for S. Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

I remember that...Fay was steady getting it on while she came across...The Everglades and Lake O don't do much to knock a storm down and as witnessed with Fay they can intensify.

SFT

[ROCK]

This is all you need to know......


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[ROCK]

it does look like the front halted right before the Yucatan and already backing up over FL....ULL is ejecting NE...I could see a western solution...all the weather though will be on the east side...I still can't find a strong LLC with this thing...really broad low...

[ObsessedMiami]

it does look like the front halted right before the Yucatan and already backing up over FL.....

The Long Range radar out of Miami shows the same thing.

[Decomdoug]

While the front is moving deeper into the Yucatan, the eastern edge seem to be retreating. This could mean that the TS shifts more to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

(couldn't type fast enough)

[artist]

Remember when Fay went over Lake O? It was like a storm on amphetamines

yep-

http://vastormphoto.com/fay2008.htm
this photo by our very own vacanechaser- Jesse

[xironman]

Should be interesting, strong SW upper level winds, but the storm will be going in the same direction.

[hurricanefloyd5]

While the front is moving deeper into the Yucatan, the eastern edge seem to be retreating. This could mean that the TS shifts more to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

(couldn't type fast enough)

what do you mean what are you talking about

[Aric Dunn]

The center is likely farther west than the advisory position.. considering there is a band going right through there..

[TheBurn]

[artist]

wxman57Would you give us your thoughts please?

[Aric Dunn]

While the front is moving deeper into the Yucatan, the eastern edge seem to be retreating. This could mean that the TS shifts more to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

(couldn't type fast enough)

what do you mean what are you talking about

well this is actually typical. the TC will push on the front and begin to force it back as it tries to move north between the ridge and trough. you can think of it as displacement like putting oil in water both the water and oil deform a little to compensate. being that the TD is very large it could push back on the trough enough to bring most of the weather back over florida as the GFS as indicated..

[Bocadude85]

The center is likely farther west than the advisory position.. considering there is a band going right through there..

I am still trying to figure out exactly where the center is.

[artist]

The center is likely farther west than the advisory position.. considering there is a band going right through there..

I am still trying to figure out exactly where the center is.

since recon is on the way, hopefully we will know soon.

[Decomdoug]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

WV loop shows the eastern edge of the front retreating back to the west slightly which to my thinking could shift the TS also slightly to the west and onto the coast of SF. This would increase the effect of the rain event.

I'm not a Meteorologist but I did stay in a Holiday inn express once.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the center looks to be near the belize and the YP where matthew made ladefall

[Aric Dunn]

The center is likely farther west than the advisory position.. considering there is a band going right through there..

I am still trying to figure out exactly where the center is.

since recon is on the way, hopefully we will know soon.

yeah that will help... I cant post the satellite overlay right now.. but if you go to the SSD visible floater and put the forecast points on there you can see a curved band going right through the "L". I guess you could argue that its the center of a broad LLC with multiple vorts but i dont really see multiple vorts anymore.. I looks like its west of that position by about 30 miles or so. not a huge deal though.

as for its motion I see no real direction to the cloud mass or the "center" its till basically stationary..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Vortmax1]

I guess you could argue that its the center of a broad LLC with multiple vorts but i dont really see multiple vorts anymore.

Very broad for sure. It will be interesting to see what RECON discovers. There is possibly another vort or LLC under the heavier convection to the East also.
We'll be finding out.