ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneseddy]

H42 a little stronger



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

Seems the consensus from all the models is strengthening is likely once it clears SA, which is what most models have been indicating; once again, the key will be how long it stays over land or over water

[HURRICANELONNY]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

[Vortex]

NAM H54 landfall NE Nicaragua



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[caneseddy]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

Actually all the models, with the exception of the Canadian has the trough picking up the storm and sending it NE (the key will be where the storm stalls)

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM has 95L just inland over Honduras at 60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

[Vortex]

H60



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[caneseddy]

NAM seems bullish on development

[Vortex]

Btw, 18Z GFS rolls in 1 Hr....

[x-y-no]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

Well that's what the HWRF and the Euro do (although the 12z Euro is pretty weird - not sure how to take it).

[caneseddy]

Btw, 18Z GFS rolls in 1 Hr....

Will it have its twin solution again, like it's been doing its past couple runs

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm confused. Which trough?





Extended forecast...
the long range models moves the middle to upper level trough of low
pressure northwest away from South Florida this weekend. The
models also show the high over the southeast United States to
move slowly east into the western Atlantic waters this weekend
into early next week...as the tropical disturbance remains nearly
stationary over the western Caribbean Sea

[caneseddy]

18z NAM at 66 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_066l.gif

Scraping the north coast of Honduras...man Honduras and CA are going to get drenched big time

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM at 72 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_072l.gif

[ospreygrad]

The first big issue is whether or not 95L stalls either making a landfall on the coast of Honduras or does it stall over the Gulf of Honduras?

The second big issue is how long it lingers in that region of the Western Caribbean as the system awaits the weakness in the SE US ridge.

Most of the models seem to be hinting at a slow down or stall in the Gulf of Honduras. This is critical in regards to intensity. If 95L stays over water, in my view all bets are off in terms of how intense this system can become.

I'm taking the approach of looking at this system in short term increments. We have another week or so to look at what impacts the CONUS may have from this developing cyclone. After Sunday, my focus will be on potential CONUS impacts.

Right now, my focus is on how close the system will get to land deep down in the Western Caribbean and how intense the system will get by the end of this upcoming weekend.

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM at 78 hours..over the Gulf of Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_078l.gif

[cycloneye]

NAM is the same as GFS developing a second system.

[ConvergenceZone]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

So based on the last sentece of the quote above, does that mean that Jeff Masters is saying that he
thinks that 95L is going to be a rainmaker, but that he doesn't expect it to develop into Matthew?
So Jeff Masters expects it to remain a wave?

[caneseddy]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

So based on the last sentece of the quote above, does that mean that Jeff Masters is saying that he
thinks that 95L is going to be a rainmaker, but that he doesn't expect it to develop into Matthew?
So Jeff Masters expects it to remain a wave?

On the contrary, Masters is uncertain of the strength of the disturbance; he just laid out the possibilities with the storm..the last sentence is from the poster

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1628

[caneseddy]

18z NAM run at 84 hours (end of run)...has 95L still over the Gulf of Honduras and still has a second storm developing just south of Hispaniola (similar to the GFS)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_084l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

On the contrary, Masters is uncertain of the strength of the disturbance; he just laid out the possibilities with the storm..the last sentence is from the poster

Okay, thanks for the clarrification on that.