ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

Weatherboy1 · #462 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:41 am

It's hard to see 16 strengthening all that much unless and until convection fires right around the center. And it's hard to see that happening with the trough shearing/shunting the convection off to the E or SE. So at this time, I'm just not all that worried it'll be worse than a bad thunderstorm day here in South FL. We'll see if that changes, but I doubt this even gets as bad as Irene. My two cents anyway

plasticup · #463 Postby **plasticup** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:43 am

You can see the rotation starting to come together, but it is so broad that I can't see this becoming much before it is pulled out. People are saying the NHC's forecast is conservative, but I'll be surprised if those Cat 1 model runs verify.

#464 Postby **Vortex** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:46 am

12Z at H18 starting to crank up

caneman · #465 Postby **caneman** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:48 am

I just don't see it. Looks like it will shunt off East at a rapid speed so don't see much happening in So. Florida. Just my opinion of course.

Weatherfreak000 · #466 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:49 am

Only a day of break for the ACE..... :lol:

ROCK · #467 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:51 am

too broad....IMO to be much more than a TS...and thats stretching it...sheared like a big dog...

ObsessedMiami · #468 Postby **ObsessedMiami** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:51 am

It is interesting to see the "it is strengthening" threads batling almost neck and neck with the "this will be nothing more than a normal thunderstorm, if that" threads.

#469 Postby **Vortex** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:52 am

H24 right over the keys and towards S/SW FL

#470 Postby **OuterBanker** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:52 am

Just as I thought. TPC will drop Nicole off SC when it becomes subtropical. Hince no 5 day path. It's a shame that they do that. Way too many perple just think it went away. I also know that it will not be purely tropical which of course lets TPC off the hook. I just want to know what is wrong with the TPC issuing warnings as this travels north as a hybrid.

All of us here know that Nicole will be handed off to the HPC. The general public has no idea who that is.

My question is just how many hurricanes of the past would todays TPC have dropped just because they became subtopical.

Is any tropical system north of 35 really pureley tropical. Why not just drop all systems north of 35n.

I'm sorry, but that really bugs me.

In today's world the TPC is the alpha and omega of tropical systems. If they don't issue warnings the the press ignores it.

I just hope this doesn't suprise someone and cause loss of life because TPC drops it.

Miami Storm Tracker · #471 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:53 am

tshizzle wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
tshizzle wrote:raining hard already in sofla, going to be some serious flooding issues if those rain forecasts from 96L come true

We have had zero rain since yeterday . What area of MIA are you located?

at work in aventura, was pouring on way in on 95, stopped now but looks like its about to pour again

Thanks for the update tshizzle, here in Westchester area not much at all.

#472 Postby **Vortex** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:54 am

12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

#473 Postby **tgenius** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:55 am

Vortex wrote:12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

Vortex.. was center initialized in the "right" spot?

jhpigott · #474 Postby **jhpigott** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:55 am

Vortex wrote:H24 right over the keys and towards S/SW FL

Sounds west of previous runs. What does the intensity look like?

blp · #475 Postby **blp** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:56 am

You can clearly see the rotation were the NHC has it. Looks to be finally coming together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

#476 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:59 am

Note=This is not the models thread.All runs from the models post them there.

SouthFLTropics · #477 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:59 am

The way things are looking the circulation of 16/Nicole may head north as forecasted but leave a lot of energy behind in the NW Caribbean to help spin up Otto. Tale of two seasons...Cape Verde and now the very interesting Caribbean season.

SFT

#478 Postby **SFLcane** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:03 am

Vortex wrote:12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

That is not good...Could put the heaviest rainfall close to the metro areas.

artist · #479 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:08 am

SFLcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

That is not good...Could put the heaviest rainfall close to the metro areas.

has the center going over Lake Okeechobee, see my post in the model thread with graphic.

petit_bois · #480 Postby **petit_bois** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:09 am

SFLcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:12Z GFS a bit further west and bring the worst of this system right over SFL...

That is not good...Could put the heaviest rainfall close to the metro areas.

This will be heading NE and a very quick pace...

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