ATL: EARL - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#461 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:31 pm

SFLcane wrote:@ 150hrs its moving NW coming close to bermuda. (Sharp recurve)


150hrs Earl is trapped under the ridge bro....lets see how long he sticks there or turns towards the west....
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#462 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:31 pm

The ridging just magically disappears but if it becomes more pronounced, watch out. Here comes the trough from the midwest to sweep him away.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#463 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:32 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Upper level pattern much more zonal on this run, could be trouble....



agree....typical August zonal shortwaves....this recent one was uncommon but it did get Dee out of the way....
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#464 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:33 pm

Is the farther west GFS has been since it started to show this system. ROCK, when our friend KWT wakes up and see this,what will his reaction be? :)
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#465 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is the farther west GFS has been since it started to show this system. ROCK, when our friend KWT wkes up and see this,what will his reaction be? :)

This run is the biggest tease ever, I'm not impressed.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#466 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:34 pm

Riptide wrote:The ridging just magically disappears but if it becomes more pronounced, watch out. Here comes the trough from the midwest to sweep him away.


Maybe Earl has a Sunpass and he was able to drive right through the toll booth without stopping! :D

SFT
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#467 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:36 pm

Not sure what most are seeing but the GFS has been pretty consistent with its runs. Synoptic pattern isnt favorable for CV landfalls in my view of things.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#468 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is the farther west GFS has been since it started to show this system. ROCK, when our friend KWT wakes up and see this,what will his reaction be? :)

KWT , I think that stands for Kane Will Turn :lol:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#469 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:37 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Riptide wrote:The ridging just magically disappears but if it becomes more pronounced, watch out. Here comes the trough from the midwest to sweep him away.


Maybe Earl has a Sunpass and he was able to drive right through the toll booth without stopping! :D

SFT

If anything remotely materializes as seen on the 0z GFS. I will seriously give up on this season forever, what a massive waste of potential and in la nina. It just multiples the fail. I am happy that midwest trough bs from hell is so far out.
Last edited by Riptide on Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#470 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is the farther west GFS has been since it started to show this system. ROCK, when our friend KWT wakes up and see this,what will his reaction be? :)


KWT will say its a RECURVER then he will hedge his bet and say but you never know...... :lol:

bad thing about this run is it still showing a closer island approach....any deviation in track would put this on PRs door....
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#471 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:39 pm

Thought it was trapped by the ridge... :wink:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#472 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:39 pm

Riptide wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Riptide wrote:The ridging just magically disappears but if it becomes more pronounced, watch out. Here comes the trough from the midwest to sweep him away.


Maybe Earl has a Sunpass and he was able to drive right through the toll booth without stopping! :D

SFT

If anything remotely materializes as seen on the 0z GFS. I will seriously give up on this season forever, what a massive waste of potential and in la nina. It just multiples the fail.



yeah Fiona is to close to Earl on this run....just dont see it either...
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#473 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:40 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not sure what most are seeing but the GFS has been pretty consistent with its runs. Synoptic pattern isnt favorable for CV landfalls in my view of things.


This is off-topic, but the question to you Adrian is, even 97L that is way south in latitud (11N) will do the same?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#474 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:40 pm

Riptide wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Riptide wrote:The ridging just magically disappears but if it becomes more pronounced, watch out. Here comes the trough from the midwest to sweep him away.


Maybe Earl has a Sunpass and he was able to drive right through the toll booth without stopping! :D

SFT

If anything remotely materializes as seen on the 0z GFS. I will seriously give up on this season forever, what a massive waste of potential and in la nina. It just multiples the fail.

I dont understand , give up on what? Hurricanes will go where they go and we are having an active season with lots of storms to track.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#475 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:41 pm

Fiona may also move into this very persistent weakness in time.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#476 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:41 pm

SFLcane wrote:Thought it was trapped by the ridge... :wink:



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

it was for a brief moment in time... :wink:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#477 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:44 pm

Next! Model run... :wink:
The glass is always half-full with me. We can see if the ensembles trended west.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#478 Postby blp » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:48 pm

I see a good shift from this morning. You can see that the system has progressed a few degrees in longitude West from the 06Z run. On the 06z run the system never gets past 62W and then heads NE out to sea. On the 00Z run the system gets to 70W and then heads due North.

06Z 144 farthest west it gets.
Image

00Z 144 farthest west it gets.
Image
Last edited by blp on Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#479 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:49 pm

How can one admire the beauty of hurricanes? I don't own a plane or boat right now. :wink:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#480 Postby boca » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:49 pm

You got to figure one of these storms will get passed the goalie its the law of average.Look inside Africa our luck might run out with a trough lifting out and high building on its all in the timing.At least the pattern is progressive.
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