ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

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KWT
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION

#461 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:01 am

Recurve wrote:On visible this morning in the last frame, just starting to see arms curving toward the convection at what I guess is the center. Might go straight to named storm. Seems to be moving along faster in the east to west flow too. I get about 11 knot movement from the best track positions.


Put this one in the Gulf and you'll have TD4 by now I'd feel pretty confident...

Still no real need to rush with this one given how far it is out, probably will go from an invest to a TD then upto a TS very quickly after that IMO.

The islands need to watch very closely still, thus not really gaining any real latitude.
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#462 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:04 am

Latest position given the non official site of StormPulse http://www.stormpulse.com/
8am: 11,5 N 43,5W
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION

#463 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:06 am

Yes I would say its depression status by now looking at its SAT presentation and pressure. Didn't I say last night it wouldn't form until 40W? Movement looks to have sped up now too - 300 deg heading not bad. The next benchmark will be 15N-50W - if it stays south of that position it won't be good for the islands of the LA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION

#464 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:09 am

Nothing yet from the atcf site about upgrade as no renumber update has occured yet.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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#465 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:11 am

It'll be good to compare this to where Bill went in the next 24hrs or so...one thing I wil lsay is the heading is not 300 degrees, the development of the centers moving northwards as the system moves just north of west is what causes the illusion of 300 degrees, I'd guess the last 2-3hrs to be about 280.

edit, I just don't know what the NHC are holding back on... :?:
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#466 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:18 am

Image

Latest
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Re: Re:

#467 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:20 am

x-y-no wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:WHat is the herbert box?


Hebert Box:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Thanks you.
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#468 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:20 am

Thats looking very good Hurakan, just a little on the small side with regards to deep convection...but the central convection looks solid.
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#469 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:24 am

I'm pretty sure I see some slight west winds at the low level ... sure looks like a TD to me.

I expect we'll have the upgrade at 11am.
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#470 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:29 am

I sure hope so x-y-no because it seems like the NHC are waiting for it to be almost a TS at the moment! :P
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Re:

#471 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:29 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest

That is TS worthy.
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Re:

#472 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:30 am

CROWNWEATHER
Issued: Monday, August 2, 2010 635 am EDT/535 am CDT
For Information On Invest 91-L with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325


Right or wrong I love when credible folks are willing to put there thoughts out there for everybody to see and criticize when they are wrong. Everybody should know to refer to the NHC for the offical forecast. They have an interesting view and I agree with the short term w/ the models trending west back towards the NE Caribbean.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION

#473 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:32 am

Maybe they skip TD status when they upgrade? :)
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#474 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:32 am

:uarrow:
:eek: :roll:
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#475 Postby cwachal » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:33 am

no the NHC is too conservative to do that... unless you see an eye form they will not go to TS... it is not a threat to land right now
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION

#476 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:34 am

Latest 2km Visible...

Image
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#477 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:35 am

I can certainly see West winds in there this morning. The low clouds on the West side scooting under the CDO. It looks like at least a TD to me...albeit a small one but TD nonetheless. I've seen smaller systems go straight to TS status before...nothing unusual about that either.
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#478 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:36 am

Image
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Re:

#479 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:39 am

Gustywind wrote:000
AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

i see the red font has appeared again, we had some last night too, we have done a good job getting rid of the CAPS now lets work on the colored fonts
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Re:

#480 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:40 am

cwachal wrote:no the NHC is too conservative to do that... unless you see an eye form they will not go to TS... it is not a threat to land right now


land has nothing to do with it, if it meets their TS criteria than they declare it if it doesn't than no TS
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