ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Blown Away]

I can't say it looks good, but it certainly looks like a thing, whatever that thing may be.

If you drew eyes in the NW convection, it looks like a monster that is going to eat PR & Hispaniola??

[knotimpaired]

Here in Vieques our Weatherhawk system reported 5.47" yesterday and today we have had .94"

You can go to our live weather at http://www.playacofi.com.

Kudos to all of our friends in the Caribbean that watches our backs.

K

[KWT]

Very interesting and somewhat odd looking system but then again these STD/STS systems rarely look decent even if they become totally tropical in nature.

[Nj612]

Holy gezzz its bad here in the BVI...and still more rain to come....Landslides taking houses with them and rockslides all over the place...major flooding in low lying areas. Boulders bigger than cars were in my driveway this morning. Well just have to hope for the best. Can't take to much more rain considering before this 2 weeks ago we had a Flash flood...and its moving soooo slow. Im sure this is going to become OTTO today or tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

crazy system

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection appears to be wrapping around. I would say the CMC has done an absolutely marvelous job this season model wise. Now that the season is on the downswing I think I can feel a little bit more comfortable saying that.


It's good to see the CMC perform so well as opposed to say the GFS or the EURO isn't for me because of a model bias, rather I remember the days it performed so poorly. This says to me meteorology as a whole has made leaps and bounds. Is a day off not to far when even the NAM is not discounted? I am not even sure if we discount the NAM or not this days honestly.

[HURAKAN]

06/1745 UTC 22.9N 68.2W T2.5/2.5 17L

tropical says Dvorak

[cycloneye]

Best Track says Subtropical Storm Otto.

AL, 17, 2010100618, BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

CMC certainly has proved it weren't a one trick pony last season so fair play to it IMO...

Anyway sure has got an interesting presentation, the convection is being thrown around quite readily at the moment, hard to call where it is at right now in terms of the evolution.

Recon at least should confirm one way or the other whether its sub or tropical.

[HURAKAN]

Soon to be Otto

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[msbee]

UPDATE:

St. Maarten is experiencing exceptionally heavy rain, high wind, thunder and lightning. Reports of roads flooded everywhere.
4 inches of rain today so far and it is still raining.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure around 992mb according to Recon. I would go 40 kt based on the data (the highest SFMR were rain-contaminated).

[dwsqos2]

Bwah!!!! I just saw the ~992 mb extrapolated from around 300 m. Given that the 992 mb prog was for 0Z Thursday, and given that it's now 1930Z Wednesday, the Euro's pressure prog was decent.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd say 40kts seems reasonable, the only thing that has to be decided is whether this is a purely tropical system or whether they stay with the subtropical system they have at the moment.

[AJC3]

06/1745 UTC 22.9N 68.2W T2.5/2.5 17L

tropical says Dvorak

Sandy, this only means the analyst chose to use the Dvorak technique, rather the Hebert-Poteat, to estimate intensity.

Using the Dvorak technique would never yield a subtropical "ST" designation, just as using H-P would never yield a tropical "T" designation.

[curtadams]

Upper level winds are still mostly counterclockwise so no upper high and likely subtropical. Transitioning, sure, but a long way to go. Also, ST = low pressure for winds, due to the large windfields.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for explaining!

[KWT]

Yeah I'd still say this is a STS though it probably is getting closer to tropical status, would be interesting to see a dropsonde through the middle of the system to see just how deep any warm core actually is.