ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

If you look at the floater VIS loop, you can see the spinning near the eastern tip of hispaniola:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jlauderdal]

Wow, I am shocked at that TWO.

why, they stated last night it was looking decent in the mid to upper levels and now they feel within 48 hours it will be a td/ts..personally i think it happens faster than that but they get the final word.

What is so shocking about their write up?

[vbhoutex]

If you look at the floater VIS loop, you can see the spinning near the eastern tip of hispaniola:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I thought I was seeing things until the 2 pm TWO came out.

[thetruesms]

Hmm, I would have expected something a little better-looking near the surface before jumping up to 60. But at the same time, I can't say I have an urge to argue very strongly against it, either.

[shortwave]

Apparently the ULL is helping to ventilate 97L:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

yup for now, but it is still dropping sw so it may help to inhibit developement with shear and subsidence...hopefully

[gatorcane]

I think that means all of the models can be thrown out right now, as they initialize it much further east near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If that is truly where it forms then I would expect most of the models to shift more south maybe even south of FL entirely

[cycloneye]

If you look at the floater VIS loop, you can see the spinning near the eastern tip of hispaniola:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I thought I was seeing things until the 2 pm TWO came out.

Is getting it's act together.

[vbhoutex]

I think that means all of the models can be thrown out right now, as they initialize it much further east near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If that is truly where it forms then I would expect most of the models to shift more south maybe even south of FL entirely

I'm not sure about throwing them out, but there should be a major adjustment on the next runs.

[Gustywind]

LATEST
Improving system...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

I have a Calculus 2 test on Friday, so, not a bad idea to have a tropical storm warning by that time!!

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps do you think we could have a TD tonight?

[ronjon]

I think that means all of the models can be thrown out right now, as they initialize it much further east near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If that is truly where it forms then I would expect most of the models to shift more south maybe even south of FL entirely

I doubt it. It's amazing to see the amount of model consistency for 97L - the window is narrowing rapidly to S FL in about 72 hours. Sure, the initial position might have some bearing on the track 50 miles or so, but the upper level synoptics are pretty set over the next 2-3 days. The system will be jugging along the edge of the subtropical ridge W-NW to occasionally NW.

[cycloneye]

[TexasF6]

I just read the Miami discussion, a couple pages back into their logs, they were thinking 97L whatever it becomes--may come through South Florida, or even through the Keys....If this thing undergoes RI, I hope they (the people) remember what John Hope and later Lyons warned about having a catastrophe in the keys if a strong storm were to ever come through. Everyone must be prepared, and I fear so many are not....

[gatorcane]

I think that means all of the models can be thrown out right now, as they initialize it much further east near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If that is truly where it forms then I would expect most of the models to shift more south maybe even south of FL entirely

I doubt it. It's amazing to see the amount of model consistency for 97L - the window is narrowing rapidly to S FL in about 72 hours. Sure, the initial position might have some bearing on the track 50 miles or so, but the upper level synoptics are pretty set over the next 2-3 days. The system will be jugging along the edge of the subtropical ridge W-NW to occasionally NW.

I agree that the motion should be WNW and sometimes NW but there should be a shift south for the next model runs, that could put most of them through the Straits, south of FL. That is assuming the ridge holds for the next 3-5 days as currently forecasted.

[Ikester]

Latest

I have a Calculus 2 test on Friday, so, not a bad idea to have a tropical storm warning by that time!!

I hate that word...calculus, not warning.

[Gustywind]

Latest TWD about 97L
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS NOW MOVED W
OVER HAITI. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE EXTENDING FROM
23N64W TO 16N68W ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N68W AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR
19N61W ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
16N-23N BETWEEN 64W-67W...AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-71W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FARTHER E FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 61W-63W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that means all of the models can be thrown out right now, as they initialize it much further east near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If that is truly where it forms then I would expect most of the models to shift more south maybe even south of FL entirely

I don't think there should be too big of a shift. The current NHC "center" north of the eastern tip of Haiti is actually quite close to where the 12z run of the GFS (operational and parallel) predicted the greatest vorticity to be right now:

Operational: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_006l.gif
Parallel: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_006l.gif

The end results of both the Operational and Parallel runs of the GFS then went on to show landfalls in south/central Florida.

[chzzdekr81]

Hey peeps do you think we could have a TD tonight?

I don't think so. Definitely in the next 48 hours though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wzrgirl1]

I have a flight out to Chicago on Thursday afternoon. Anyone know the rules as to whether or not the airlines fly if we are under a Hurricane Watch? I know they won't fly under a Warning right? I am not sure what to do. I guess I should wait until tomorrow to see if in fact it forms right?