ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

Wow...it is already level with the 01/00Z forecast point on that loop!

[KWT]

Is there any live streaming news agencies today covering Alex...I bet there maybe in a few hours if it keeps lifting out...

I'm getting more convinced the system is very slowly shifting back westward, but it'll probably pick up a good degree of latitude before it finally pushes inland I feel...

As for the models, funnily enough a few GFS runs did call for this, I think it was a couple of the 18z suite funnily enough that took this northwards up the coast, not a bad call right now...

[ronjon]

I think the NHC is doing a fine job with the storm. Even IF it were to LF near Brownsville, they've been under a hurricane warning for 36 hrs. However, all the models show the ridge building in stronger today to force a W or W-SW heading prior to LF. The NHC are the experts, let's not be so quick to say they've done a bad job with this storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

We aren't looking at a doomsday scenario, either.

http://www.southpadreskycam.com/

[tolakram]

Look how high the water is here. Will be interesting to see how high the surge is, though landfall will be after dark.

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

[Senobia]

Local news is reporting that Texas Hwy 87 from the ferry landing on Bolivar Peninsula to High Island is closed due to high water.

Way, way, wayyyyy north of the border.

http://www.kfdm.com/news/high-38408-state-water.html

[RachelAnna]

I honestly think a lot of the issue for the media is that they don't want to hype something that has been very hard to forecast. With so many differing opinions along the way I think they have found it hard to find something to latch onto to actually hype. The result is that maybe not everyone who should be paying attention to this system is aware of its potential. Of course, this is just my opinion. I think there is a careful balance between being informative and hyping. I think this time the media have erred to much on the side of caution in not wanting to hype something that won't happen.

[KWT]

Looking very good there tolakram, inner core looks pretty good there is has to be said though still got that moat there between the convection and the inner core.

The fact is this may LF outside of the cone...and as has been said its alrady as far north as the NHC forecast for 00z.

[dabears]

Bob Hall Pier in Corpus Christi has already reported wind gusts of 54 mph and 64 mph close by. There was a tornado touchdown reported in Port Isabel

[cycloneye]

Corpus Christi Web Cam

[Macrocane]

I'm still surprised that CNN is not giving much coverage about Alex, I'm not expecting them to create a hype but it would be good if they made updates more often, especially because Alex is so big that it will affect an signifant part of the US even if it makes landfall in Mexico.

[bob rulz]

The eye is pretty clear on visible now and I think it's starting to peak out on IR, as well.

[Nederlander]

A couple of points.. I'm seeing a lot of posts from people wondering why brownsville isn't taking this more seriously.. Folks, this is still a low end cat 1 storm.. Flooding should be the major concern.. If someone lives in a flood prone area then they should probably get out.. But a cat 1 storm can be ridden out pretty easy.. I'm no expert but I don't think the surge will be devastating.. Alex hasn't been heading in the same direction for a long time (unlike Ike)..

I'm on my blackberry so I can't post the disclaimer but refer to it at the top.

[bob rulz]

A low end cat 1 that is still several hours away from landfall and shows all of the classic signs of a rapidly developing storm....

[wx247]

Two tornado reports so far this morning: Port Isbael and 2 miles west of Brownsville... going to be a long day.

[Normandy]

A couple of points.. I'm seeing a lot of posts from people wondering why brownsville isn't taking this more seriously.. Folks, this is still a low end cat 1 storm.. Flooding should be the major concern.. If someone lives in a flood prone area then they should probably get out.. But a cat 1 storm can be ridden out pretty easy.. I'm no expert but I don't think the surge will be devastating.. Alex hasn't been heading in the same direction for a long time (unlike Ike)..

I'm on my blackberry so I can't post the disclaimer but refer to it at the top.

With a storm this size surge is always going to be the main issue. Brownsville and Matamaros sit at the mouth of the Rio Grande river, and will experience that right front quad of this storm. Even if the eyewall misses them to the south, water will still be pushed into the mouth of the Rio Grande. With hurricanes this size, you can't focus on the landfall point. Ike produced a similar surge that Rita did in Cameron Parish despite making landfall 100 miles west. Considering that this storm will easily pass within 100 miles of BRO/Matamaros, they should have taken this a bit more seriously IMO.

[johngaltfla]

A couple of points.. I'm seeing a lot of posts from people wondering why brownsville isn't taking this more seriously.. Folks, this is still a low end cat 1 storm.. Flooding should be the major concern.. If someone lives in a flood prone area then they should probably get out.. But a cat 1 storm can be ridden out pretty easy.. I'm no expert but I don't think the surge will be devastating.. Alex hasn't been heading in the same direction for a long time (unlike Ike)..

I'm on my blackberry so I can't post the disclaimer but refer to it at the top.

Uh, a Cat 1 can still take your windows out. I went through one that was supposed to come ashore as a TS then intensified as it came ashore (Michelle) and as I slept my wife screamed as one of the windows exploded. Prep like it's a 3 and you can ride out a 1 if you're not prone to flooding. But Definitely harden your shelter because you never know when a tornado will spin up debris and damage your home.

[Outlaw JW]

June 30, 2010 10:08 AM

Brownsville Mayor Pat M. Ahumada Jr. urges the community not to underestimate the impact of Hurricane Alex on the city and the Rio Grande Valley.

“I ask the community not to get over confident,” Ahumada said, noting that the storms could produce flooding and spur tornadoes.

“I am urging residents to remain indoors,” the mayor said.

He said that the hurricane’s course could also change, “and you don’t want to be caught with your pants down.”

For now, he does not anticipate the need to open another shelter besides Porter High School at International Boulevard. The school has room for 800 persons and only 27 have sought shelter.

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/ahumada-113887-alex-underestimate.html

[Frank2]

Still on its (or back to its) WNW heading - eye now visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Nederlander]

A low end cat 1 that is still several hours away from landfall and shows all of the classic signs of a rapidly developing storm....

Its definitely possible to intensify before landfall.. But I wouldn't say its undergoing RI... I think its too large of a system to RI..