ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HurricaneBelle]

THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL
BETWEEN NHC AND THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK FAVORED SOMETHING CLOSE
TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION...WHICH WILL BE PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.

That's the most praise I've ever heard heaped on the NAM: "preferred by default". There's a slogan its creators can hang on the wall.

[gatorcane]

I think its difficult to deny the fact that it is gradually organizing. Looks like chances of Bonnie continue to go up by the hour. Expect NHC to give it a 60% chance for the next TWO.

[Bocadude85]

Hey, look, CAT3 Bonnie!!!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html

Talk about a malfunction...

lol yea quite the malfunction

[trendal]

That's the most praise I've ever heard heaped on the NAM: "preferred by default". There's a slogan its creators can hang on the wall.

"De-fault! De-fault! The two best words in the English language." -- Homer Simpson

[Bocadude85]

I think its difficult to deny the fact that it is gradually organizing. Looks like chances of Bonnie continue to go up by the hour. Expect NHC to give it a 60% chance for the next TWO.

I dont think they will go that high... IMO they will stay at 40%... but I could be wrong

[shortwave]

still seeing a vigorous wave in the formative stages via satellite and surface obs. nothing else.
and should this wave prevent fishing out of riviera beach for a nice catch of yellowtails and muttons this weekend..I will declare war on the tropical season.

[HurricaneBelle]

From the Tampa Bay AFD on the system:

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
IN ANY CASE...IF THE WAVE REMAINS INTACT...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS...THE TRACK AND TIMING WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS WE GET NEARER TO THE EVENT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND POPS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH.

[gatorcane]

I think its difficult to deny the fact that it is gradually organizing. Looks like chances of Bonnie continue to go up by the hour. Expect NHC to give it a 60% chance for the next TWO.

I dont think they will go that high... IMO they will stay at 40%... but I could be wrong

I could see 50% also, 60% for the next TWO later on this evening (code red by then).

[thetruesms]

Hey, look, CAT3 Bonnie!!!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html

Talk about a malfunction...

Yeah, that doesn't look quite right

[cycloneye]

Up to 60% Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[tolakram]

Winds over northern going very light. First station with a very light west wind: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MFRDP4 Possibly rain issues.





Overview: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... .0&zoom=10

[vbhoutex]

Hey, look, CAT3 Bonnie!!!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html

Talk about a malfunction...

[gatorcane]

South FL media already on it, its on the front page:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/

[Brent]

Wow, I am shocked at that TWO.

[Bocadude85]

Up to 60% Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

Well looks like I was wrong

[StormClouds63]

Is there a chance this system pulls a Chris (2006) and dissipates without affecting the U.S. at all? Just wondering about shear and that ULL to its north.

[Decomdoug]

South FL media already on it, its on the front page:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/

In the words of our Pres. "everybody is getting all wee, wee-ed up" LOL

[Nederlander]

Is there a chance this system pulls a Chris (2006) and dissipates without affecting the U.S. at all? Just wondering about shear and that ULL to its north.

well it hasnt really developed yet.. i guess if there is a 60% chance of forming in 48 hours, then there is a 40% chance of it not forming.. with regards to shear, it is forecast to weaken pretty good here in the next 12-24 hours i believe..

[Frank2]

Apparently the ULL is helping to ventilate 97L:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Evil Jeremy]

60% is too high IMO. I would have it at around 50%. Still, they are the experts for a reason. Anyways, this should take many down here by surprise. A TS hitting the area in 3 days? Not much notice. Anyways, my family and I are evacuating tomorrow. Granted, we already had vacation plans, but it still counts lol.