ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[lrak]

Its kinda worrisome to me for sure Portastorm.

[Tireman4]

Wow, we (Houston) go from a nearly dry August to a wet September. Feast or famine. Goodness.

[Vortmax1]

[Florida1118]

IMO, gonna be another TD 2. Possibly Hermine but Time really not in favor of our invest. And on a semi-related note, Is moisture 90L Drifting to Fl because there is rain of the coast and....I dont know.

[ROCK]

Looks like a broad area of elongated 'low pressure' from just E of Veracruz extending NE.

agree very broad looking at that loop...

[lrak]

there also looks like a small swirl right off Mexico's coast in the Veracruz area.?

[KWT]

Probably has reasonable chance of developing into something before land but much depends on how far off the coast it can end up getting.

[tailgater]

there also looks like a small swirl right off Mexico's coast in the Veracruz area.?

Yea that's the one that looks like it could wind up pretty quick, up to 70% IMHO.

[supercane]

FYI, Navy issued a TCFA.
WTNT21 KNGU 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4N 94.9W TO 22.8N 98.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. RMKS: AT 06/1500Z, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 94.9W AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS IN CONJUCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND MOVEMENT INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 061500Z AUG 2010.//

[Weatherfreak000]

Chances look good for Hermine here, wouldnt you guys say?

[Ptarmigan]

If things get right, 90L has a shot at becoming TD 10 and Hermine. Regardless, we will get rain and that is fine with me.

[Macrocane]

I think I saw a circulation center a few frames ago, it may have been an eddy or a meso I'm not sure, did anyone else notice it?

[Macrocane]

If you look at this loop you will see the feature I'm talking about between 14:45 UTC and 16:15 UTC and it's located just west of 95W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis-s.html

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
NNNN

[masaji79]

It's a little hard to pick out a definite center in that mess of clouds.

[Vortmax1]

05/1745 UTC 19.9N 95.5W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic

[ROCK]

see some outflow boundaries...nothing in that loop that sticks out....needs more to time to stew...

[srainhoutx]

Appears the biggest concern may well be rainfall from 90L.

HPC:

ELSEWHERE...QUESTIONS CONTINUE WITH RESPECT TO A DEVELOPING WRN
GULF OF MEX LOW RELATED TO FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E. THESE
CONCERN POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION AND MOTION TO NE MEX/TX JUST PRIOR
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN MAINTAIN
THE SYSTEM AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM CENTRAL TX THRU ERN OK/SRN
MO TO THE LOWER OH VLY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS TX MIDWEEK MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AND LEANED AWAY FROM
THE NAM...THOUGH RECENT ECMWF TRENDS FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY MID-LATER WEEK AS
PER DEEP MOISTURE THEN EVENTUAL FRONTAL APPROACH. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

[Vortmax1]

Day 1-3 QPF:





...S TX...
MDLS CONT TO BE PERSISTENT IN BRINGING TROP MSTR NNWWD THRU THE
WRN GULF INTO SRN TX THIS PD ASSOCTD WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES NOW OVR THE SWRN GULF. HOWEVER..THERE RMNS CONSIDERABLE MDL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STG AND FAST ANY SUCH SFC LOW/SYS REACHES
TX..WITH THE LATEST NAM LIKELY BEING A TOO STG OUTLIER. THRU THIS
PD AT LEAST..SOME INCREASED MSTR WL LIKELY BE PULLED INTO S TX ON
THE N SIDE OF ANY WK NWD MOVG LOW PRES..BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
RNFL AMTS TO MAINLY CSTL SXNS OF SRN TX. LEANED TWDS THE GFS QPF
HERE..WITH THE NAM AGAIN PROBABLY A LTL TOO QUICK IN BRINGING THE
SYS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NWD.

[vbhoutex]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-92&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&numframes=10

What's this area? It looks like there are two rotations with this system.

I haven't taken a long look at the sats yet, but I think I know what you are seeing. It appears to me that the midlevel has a broad elongated low pressure area with a possible llc at the far SW end of the broader low. JMHO. I may change my mind after a longer look.
Just about anyway you look at this system it appears that much of TX is in for a wet week, depending on which model you choose.