ATL: GASTON - Models

[lonelymike]

So I'm supposed to believe a wave that is now moving WNW is supposed to be south of Key West in 2 weeks? BALDERDASH!

[Ivanhater]

So I'm supposed to believe a wave that is now moving WNW is supposed to be south of Key West in 2 weeks? BALDERDASH!

Well you don't have to believe it, but it comes from somewhere. Best guess is 98L given location and analyzing the 850 vorticity and accompanying wind shift.

[sunnyday]

How long before someone calls this a fish or a recurve? Those two words have been used so much lately.

[ColinDelia]

I've watched it a dozen times every which way. Seems to appear and disappear. That's out at the limits of sanity anyway. Will just have to keep watching and try and get a handle on it if it repeats.

[ColinDelia]

How long before someone calls this a fish or a recurve? Those two words have been used so much lately.

Long before it either forms or dissipates for good. lol

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 010048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100901 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  32.1W   12.7N  34.7W   13.2N  36.9W   13.4N  39.1W
BAMD    12.2N  32.1W   12.8N  34.3W   13.6N  36.1W   14.4N  37.6W
BAMM    12.2N  32.1W   12.8N  34.5W   13.3N  36.5W   13.8N  38.2W
LBAR    12.2N  32.1W   12.9N  34.6W   13.6N  37.2W   14.3N  39.5W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  0000   100904  0000   100905  0000   100906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  41.1W   14.3N  45.2W   15.3N  49.7W   16.5N  55.0W
BAMD    15.2N  38.8W   17.2N  41.9W   19.6N  45.2W   20.9N  48.2W
BAMM    14.2N  39.7W   15.5N  43.1W   17.1N  46.9W   18.3N  51.4W
LBAR    15.1N  41.5W   17.7N  45.3W   22.4N  48.0W   25.9N  48.3W
SHIP        41KTS          46KTS          49KTS          51KTS
DSHP        41KTS          46KTS          49KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  32.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  29.6W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  26.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Vortex]

ukmet 12Z on board


H+120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Blown Away]

That is 98L in the long range GFS by the Florida Keys

Are you sure that is 98L in th Keys? 98L is already past 30W and it seems hard to believe it will take 384 hours to make it to the Keys?

[RachelAnna]

So considering how far out it is and that not all models are picking up on it, are our local experts thinking this is more likely to develop than not? I know the NHC has given it a 20% chance of developing in the next 48, but what do you think after that?

[Ivanhater]

Blownaway, by 168 hours the system in the Keys comes from the weak vorticity in the extreme Southeastern Caribbean at 168 hours

It takes 9 days just to get through the Caribbean all the way to the keys, so when you trace it back before 168 hours by vort and wind shift to the current position it v adds up. However, there really isn't any need to over analyze the 18z GFS long range that will certainly change in future runs.

[Blown Away]

So considering how far out it is and that not all models are picking up on it, are our local experts thinking this is more likely to develop than not? I know the NHC has given it a 20% chance of developing in the next 48, but what do you think after that?

The system keeps improving so I got to think this is Gaston in the making. It has model support and it's peak season. This system seems to have a better chance to get farther west.

[gatorcane]

Right now model support just isn't that great on this system. The GFDL and HWRF barely keep it a low for the next 5 days. The GFS and ECMWF show nothing during this timeframe either. The CMC develops it but it is the CMC -- it develops about any low out there it seems.

That said, the structure looks good and there is cyclonic turning evident but development is going to be a long process with this one in my opinion, if it develops it at all. Main reason is the dry air. I already see evidence that dry air is slowly eating away at it looking at the SAT loops tonight. I need to see at least the ECMWF or GFS on board or else I am not going to be bullish on development.

As for the long-range models out there that I have seen posted in this thread, well won't even comment because we all know that is so far out there and has just about 0% chance of verifying.

[AtlanticWind]

[quote="gatorcane"]Right now model support just isn't that great on this system. The GFDL and HWRF barely keep it a low for the next 5 days. The GFS and ECMWF show nothing during this timeframe either. The CMC develops it but it is the CMC -- it develops about any low out there it seems.

That said, the structure looks good and there is cyclonic turning evident but development is going to be a long process with this one in my opinion, if it develops it at all. Main reason is the dry air. I already see evidence that dry air is slowly eating away at it looking at the SAT loops tonight. I need to see at least the ECMWF or GFS on board or else I am not going to be bullish on development.

As for the long-range models out there that I have seen posted in this thread, well won't even comment because we all know that is so far out there and has just about 0% chance of verifying.[


I dont see the dry air as a factor at all right now, seems to have a good moisture envelope . models should start to pick up on this over the next few cycles.

[Sanibel]

Something that lays low might be the only type of system that makes it past the recurve pattern.


This is the type of year where everyone watches Cape Verde and a sleeper creeps up out of the Caribbean.

[lonelymike]

Hard to see the model tracks verifying if its still moving WNW as the Xtrap indicates. But then again who knows. Ships doesn't do much with it.

[Ivanhater]

Hard to see the model tracks verifying if its still moving WNW as the Xtrap indicates. But then again who knows. Ships doesn't do much with it.

SHIPS makes this Tropical storm Gaston at 60 mph.

This has the attention of the NHC with them bumping up to 20 percent and declaring an invest. Structure has improved markedly over the day so those are the pluses.

In the short term, model support is minimal so I'm weary. However, enough pluses in my book to continue thorough analysis.

[hurricaneCW]

Models aren't perfect. Just because they don't show much now, doesn't mean we won't get a system. Remember when gfs showed a 1007 mb low with either Felix or Dean in 2007 when it was a Cat 5.

[ROCK]

Right now model support just isn't that great on this system. The GFDL and HWRF barely keep it a low for the next 5 days. The GFS and ECMWF show nothing during this timeframe either. The CMC develops it but it is the CMC -- it develops about any low out there it seems.

That said, the structure looks good and there is cyclonic turning evident but development is going to be a long process with this one in my opinion, if it develops it at all. Main reason is the dry air. I already see evidence that dry air is slowly eating away at it looking at the SAT loops tonight. I need to see at least the ECMWF or GFS on board or else I am not going to be bullish on development.

As for the long-range models out there that I have seen posted in this thread, well won't even comment because we all know that is so far out there and has just about 0% chance of verifying.

Dee and Earl both had dry air to their north....didnt stop them from developing.. .

BTW- the CMC has outperformed the EURO for in the short range. It been tweaked from last year where it would spin up everything. This year has not been the case.

[ROCK]

Hard to see the model tracks verifying if its still moving WNW as the Xtrap indicates. But then again who knows. Ships doesn't do much with it.

SHIPS makes this Tropical storm Gaston at 60 mph.

This has the attention of the NHC with them bumping up to 20 percent and declaring an invest. Structure has improved markedly over the day so those are the pluses.

In the short term, model support is minimal so I'm weary. However, enough pluses in my book to continue thorough analysis.

agree.....the CMC always seems to find the spot of development way before the GFS IMO....GFS has been horrible this year...that said, models are slowly coming on board....

[Ivanhater]

I love my Canadian ROCK...Thanks for the kind words