I said this one might turn lower into us come right over us just cause it is the holiday weekend
I am not saying it will thats just our luck so we will be secured on the holiday weekend. LOL
WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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StormingB81
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StormingB81
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- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
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StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (10W)
This one is moving so fast, I highly doubt it will be anything but a nice way to screw up some of y'alls 4-day weekends. It's keeping my husband off the boat...AGAIN, though so that's a good thing! 
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StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (10W)
Oh joy. 
Maybe I should start taunting it:
"You're just a WEAK tropical depression! You don't even have a NAME you weak little insignificant storm! You want to be TYPHOON Malou? Well, you better work for it you little 33 kt nothing! My husband produces more wind after a burrito!"
That'll do it.
Maybe I should start taunting it: "You're just a WEAK tropical depression! You don't even have a NAME you weak little insignificant storm! You want to be TYPHOON Malou? Well, you better work for it you little 33 kt nothing! My husband produces more wind after a burrito!"
That'll do it.
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StormingB81
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WHat I said maybe taken the wrong way to so I deleted it.
Last edited by StormingB81 on Thu Sep 02, 2010 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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StormingB81
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StormingB81
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StormingB81
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JMA 12Z analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 20.0N 135.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JTWC 09Z advisory:
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
WTPN33 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.4N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 136.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 03W:300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
ATCF actually posted track guidance for 10W:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 20.0N 135.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JTWC 09Z advisory:
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
WTPN33 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.4N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 136.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 03W:300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
ATCF actually posted track guidance for 10W:
0 likes
WTPN33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 31.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 135.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W/
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
020930Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND FROM DROPSONDE DATA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS NOW MORE TO THE LEFT OF
THE TRACK FORECAST AT 020000Z IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ROBUST STEERING
RIDGE. THE INITIAL HALF OF THE FORECAST IS FUNDAMENTALLY THE SAME.
B. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36, AFTER
WHICH GFDN AND GFS DIVERGE SHARPLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS INITIALLY ON PAR WITH THEM TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO COMPENSATE FOR THE UNLIKELY DEFLECTION TO
THE LEFT. TD 10W WILL SEE A MEAGER, ALBEIT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST UP TO TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE POLEWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SHOULD INITIALLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL, HOWEVER, DIMINISH AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION INCREASES. BY TAU 120, TD 10W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.//
NNNN
TXPN25 KNES 021408
SIMWIR
A. 10W (NONAME)
B. 02/1332Z
C. 20.8N
D. 136.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON DT. ALL FACTORS AGREE DESPITE POORLY DEFINED
CENTER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
02/1153Z 21.2N 135.8E AMSU
...BALDWIN
=
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 29.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 31.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 135.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W/
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
020930Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND FROM DROPSONDE DATA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS NOW MORE TO THE LEFT OF
THE TRACK FORECAST AT 020000Z IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ROBUST STEERING
RIDGE. THE INITIAL HALF OF THE FORECAST IS FUNDAMENTALLY THE SAME.
B. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36, AFTER
WHICH GFDN AND GFS DIVERGE SHARPLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS INITIALLY ON PAR WITH THEM TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO COMPENSATE FOR THE UNLIKELY DEFLECTION TO
THE LEFT. TD 10W WILL SEE A MEAGER, ALBEIT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST UP TO TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE POLEWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SHOULD INITIALLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL, HOWEVER, DIMINISH AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION INCREASES. BY TAU 120, TD 10W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.//
NNNN
TXPN25 KNES 021408
SIMWIR
A. 10W (NONAME)
B. 02/1332Z
C. 20.8N
D. 136.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON DT. ALL FACTORS AGREE DESPITE POORLY DEFINED
CENTER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
02/1153Z 21.2N 135.8E AMSU
...BALDWIN
=
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:who reported what?
I was wondering who reported how close to Kadena it would be...Never mind, I read Dave Ornauer's update. lol
Actually, he put another one out since JTWC has shifted the track slightly to the left. I think he's saying it should pass 3 miles south of Kadena if it stays on track...which means that where I live = ground zero. I know the last storm seemed pretty weak, but it hit pretty far north of here. If we pass directly under the center of the storm, this one might actually seem stronger than Kompasu from where we are.
Predicting gusts of about 80-mph. Kadena reported their strongest gust at just over 50 mph with Kompasu, I think.
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Wait, dropsonde data? Are the C130s in Guam flying this?
And on another note, that forecast track is almost identical to Kompasu's...
Took a while to find, but the answer is yes.
ITOP 2010 Field Study
ITOP will focus on typhoons in the Western Pacific Ocean.
<snip>
Special observational facilities and models for ITOP include:
[*]A moored buoy array (deployed in 2008) located in the region of maximum typhoon frequency near 20N and 125E.
During ITOP the buoy array will be enchanced by additional moorings deployed and recovered by United States and Taiwainese research vessels.
[*]Two C-130 aircraft from the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Squadron will be based in Guam. They will measure the properties of typhoons using onboard sensors and deploy dropsondes. Also, they will deploy arrays of floats and drifters to measure the ocean response to typhoons. Deployments will be made both ahead of and in the wake of typhoons.
[*]The DOTSTAR Astra jet will be based in Taiwan and will also be deploying dropsondes.
[*]A United States research vessel will be rapidly deployed into the wake of typhoons to survey the wake and deploy gliders and drifters and also to recover those deployed by the aircraft.
[*]Special satellite and numerical forecast model (atmospheric, oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean) products will be developed and used to guide the ITOP operations.
See the following websites:
ITOP: http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/itop/
DOTSTAR: http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en/
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P.K.
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (10W)
I see Taiwan actually flew around Kompasu a few days ago. This is a little surprising as they only usually do recon on systems which are a direct threat to them.
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StormingB81
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I dont know it is trying ti re organize but doesnt look that good and still looks like a tropical depression as of the 5 am advisory looks like it MAY not be as strong however some are saying a west turn then a north turn that would put it in on upwelled waters and a chance to stregnthen gotta watch but I think it wont be that bad at all
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I dont know it is trying ti re organize but doesnt look that good and still looks like a tropical depression as of the 5 am advisory looks like it MAY not be as strong however some are saying a west turn then a north turn that would put it in on upwelled waters and a chance to stregnthen gotta watch but I think it wont be that bad at all
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