ATL: FIONA - Models

[dwsqos2]

I am shocked that no one has posted hour 240 of the 00Z Euro.

[Brent]

I have no words.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am shocked that no one has posted hour 240 of the 00Z Euro.

Oh boy that Euro run is pretty scary. I was actually looking at it from the FSU website but that one only goes out to 144 hours. At that time it looked to be heading NW away from the islands so I was assuming that the rest of the run would make it a fish. Gosh I wish I looked at the rest

<RICKY>

[Brent]

Good grief.

[superfly]

921? lol

[Brent]

921? lol

Either that's what it says or I need sleep.

[Ikester]

Thank GOD this is still very far away....the trends are not good for the US.

[SETXWXLADY]

CMC 240 in same place. Basically.

[LowndesCoFire]

921? lol

Cat 4-5 right?

[KWT]

Ok I do see a need to be concerned here IF a couple of things do happen. Firstly if this wave doesn't gain much latitude in the next few days and sticks close to say 13-15N till the Islands, then it needs to be watched.

Secondly if the upper high forms like the models prog...the GFS also builds the high in like the CMC/ECM but takes a little longer which shunts proto Fiona out of the way and into the Atlantic as it follows Earl.

We will see, timing will be key with this one.

[cycloneye]

Ok I do see a need to be concerned here IF a couple of things do happen. Firstly if this wave doesn't gain much latitude in the next few days and sticks close to say 13-15N till the Islands, then it needs to be watched.

Secondly if the upper high forms like the models prog...the GFS also builds the high in like the CMC/ECM but takes a little longer which shunts proto Fiona out of the way and into the Atlantic as it follows Earl.

We will see, timing will be key with this one.

So no recurve with this one from the getgo as you said with Danielle and Earl.

[KWT]

Rather 50-50 really Cycloneye, though I'd say it needs more to happen for it to hit land then for it to recurve, or in other words more things will have to slot into place for a risk to land...

Honestly though the fact that the GFS does seem to build in an upper high as well even if its a bit delayed as well as the other two models is a cause for concern it really is.

[x-y-no]

Ouch ...

It has a mid-level ridge over it too ...



No way to avoid EC landfall with that setup.

[cycloneye]

KWT, this one is the most concern I have being in Puerto Rico because of the low latitude it will track.

[KWT]

x-y-no thats why I'm watching this one quite closely, all the models do try to build an upper high to some extent but the 48hrs or so of difference between the models may well be key, as will be the evolution between Earl and 97L...

Its a really messy set-up when you think about it...

Cycloneye, I personally suspect it will gain enough latitude from Earl's weakness to lift out to near 25N...but if the upper ridge builds fast enough there isn't going to be anywhere for this one to go other then WNW towards the east coast, maybe in a Dora type fashion?

[Frank2]

Rather 50-50 really Cycloneye, though I'd say it needs more to happen for it to hit land then for it to recurve, or in other words more things will have to slot into place for a risk to land...

I agree (and that has nothing to do with my being from the FISH camp - lol)...

The 240-hour map is 10 days out, and forecasters usually don't rely very much on a product like that - if it were the 120-hour map that'd be different, but at 10 days so much can change that a map like that is going to change from run to run...

The reality is that Danielle is moving slower than some models had forecast a few days ago (or as slow as other models had forecast) and because of that (as Dr. Knabb mentioned) it would mean a deeper trough left in it's wake and will likely help Earl to recurve, and depending on how fast Earl is moved along that could also aid in the future Fiona recurving, as well...

As in the 1981 multiple CV recurves, Emily was the very slow mover back then, and each subsequent CV hurricane made the trough deeper until the Bermuda high became an Azores high for the remainder of that CV season...

Frank

[KWT]

THe other thing Frank is I suspect this one may stay a little further south then quite a few of the models progged, maybe like what we are seeing with Earl right now.

Expect some of the models to shift westwards, the CMC looks close IMO though I think it gains more latitude after 60W then it shows...

[Frank2]

True - with so many bullets being fired our way, it's similar to what Marshall Dillon on Gunsmoke has to deal with - eventually one or two might come "real close"...

Still, as you said the recurve might not start until further west, and I'm sure cycloneye and those in the Bahamas are going to be watching that, too...

Hurricane season - you have to love it (not)...

LOL

[gatorcane]

What a westward shift in the models here. This one has always concerned me the most of the trio.....

[Blown Away]

The EURO & CMC runs, is Fiona skirting up the EC or in position to cross SFL?