ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[perk]

Mike thanks for your post.Any reasonable member on this board can't disagree with you.I just checked the GFS 12oz run and that large trof does'nt show up on it.There's only a small window for 95L to make it's turn.

[Nimbus]

I suppose if the weakness is not as large, and the ridge moves it sooner, it could block this system and send it west. Will look for trends in future runs:

The East coast could potentially see a Hugo out of this, so the early models will be more comforting in a few days if the weakness in the ridge is still in the same spot and strength.

[KWT]

Thats the worst case Nimbus though with Hugo it got way west of where this one picks up latitude, its not far off from Frances apart from this one starts off even further east...and lets not forget FRances curved sharply just a few hundred miles to the west of its landfall.

Just to point out something, what we should be looking for is noty less troughing because the system is up at 20N by 55W according to the models and even weak troughing is going to be enough in that case given where it is located...but instead looking in case an upper high forms over Canada.

If any of the major models try to pull that trick then alarm bells will be going off but till then I wouldn't exactly think it hitting land is a high risk...

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows a large weakness over the EASTERN CONUS and Canada at 144 hours as future Danielle is moving northward:

[bvigal]

Anybody know why there are so many models not reporting in after 7-1/2hrs of 95L? 2pm EDT: no GFS, NGP, CMC, GFDL?
(Didn't post a fixed image, since it's a big bump file, so this may change.)

[ROCK]

GFS IMO is back to reality....do we really think, in the middle of August, we are going to have a short wave dig into mid- FL? Its over done. over cooked or whatever you want to call it.

2 days ago the GFS hinted at the trof will flatten out,,,go zonal..allowing the whatever weakness to fill quickly......

MW, good post......

[ROCK]

12Z CMC shows a large weakness over the EASTERN CONUS and Canada at 144 hours as future Danielle is moving northward:

after 144hr it is pushed west before catching the next train out...any slight deviation is track or delay in develop means further west and a EC threat....

[breaking wind]

Heres my less than scientific take. The computer models are indeed correct this will be our next storm and will be relatively accurate within 72 hours on when it makes its curve to the north but the models will once again overestimate the strength of this system. I can't pinpoint it and I know things can change on a dime in the tropics but something just isnt right this year. 50/50 at best this makes hurricane status.

[ROCK]

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

168-196hr pushing west towards the EC...

[KWT]

after 144hr it is pushed west before catching the next train out...any slight deviation is track or delay in develop means further west and a EC threat....

Look at the big upper trough coming down near Canada, note the greens coming into view thats diving SE:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

Probably gets to 60W then lifts northwards...still no model going against the current recurve idea...

12z CMC is actually more agressive with digging the upper trough then the 00z by the way at 144hrs. The only thing I don't lik about the CMC is it takes it WNW almost right from the start...

[ROCK]

after 144hr it is pushed west before catching the next train out...any slight deviation is track or delay in develop means further west and a EC threat....

Look at the big upper trough coming down near Canada, note the greens coming into view thats diving SE:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

Probably gets to 60W then lifts northwards...still no model going against the current recurve idea...

12z CMC is actually more agressive with digging the upper trough then the 00z by the way at 144hrs.

true but the fact the westward push from 168-196 is telling...IMO....

lets not forget it was a day or 2 ago where the long range GFS was showing as far west as NC....

[Blown Away]

Things can obviously change, but there really is nothing at this point that supports anything but a fish. Maybe Bermuda?

[KWT]

Yeah but then again as I said the 00z CMC was alot weaker with the upper trough, the 12z is back with the same sort of strength as the GFS.

The UKMO screams recurve, the GFDL/HWRF suggests heavily at recurve as well.

I think possibly Bermuda needs to watch it but all the models are even to the east of that by a decent amount!

[Blown Away]

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

168-196hr pushing west towards the EC...

?? I see the system hugging 60W and recurving NE of the Caribbean?

[KWT]

Yeahs that what I saw to be honest BA, maybe his/ours hasn't refreshed from maybe what it was doing the other day...

ECM nearly poofs this one on its 12z run!!!

[Ivanhater]

Apparently the Euro is coming in very weak with the system

Just got back from campus so I'll look into it more.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL makes this a major hurricane while moving NW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

12z GFDL makes this a major hurricane while moving NW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Notice the ridge we saw with the 12Z GFS building off the Eastern seaboard of the US at the end of this run....

[KWT]

THe ECM is pretty weak as others have said...

The only thing I will say is it seems to focus in on an area a little to the north of where the broad circulation is and that probably places it closer to the drier air...but I guess its just a duff run until more models agree...

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro strengthening in the Bahamas with a high to the north..

gotta love the tropics