ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah I agree stormcenter, I'm not totally sold on development for that matter but these sorts of systems do have a habit of developing in the N.Gulf from frontal boundaries.

MLC should continue WSW for a little yet, I'd imagine it'd be the area to watch though for now it looks attached to the frontal system still, hence why its non tropical according to the NHC.

[Stormcenter]

Here's a nice visible loop of what is going on right now.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Infdidoll]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

Since it varies by month, here is a list of the hotspots by each month based on historical frequency and past tracks. Enjoy!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#ori

MW

Thanks for posting this! Really neat info...

[CrazyC83]

Isn't this supposed to just roll over Florida and become an east coast low?

[DTWright]

Actually it is supposed to, according to some models, meander towards the WSW into the Gulf, and from there it's anyone's guess . . .

[KWT]

Isn't this supposed to just roll over Florida and become an east coast low?

That was the idea orginally but since then the models have come into better agreement on 95L to head W/WSW close to the Gulf states and eventually turn inland. Upper ridge looking strong now so no reason for it to turn out the NE just yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

Definitely need to keep out eye on this system, IMO.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I just wish it would hurry up and get outta here! As long as that and its sagging front are around, Tampa Bay will be in the clouds and rainy weather for the holiday weekend! I was really looking forward to getting out on the boat this weekend now that my back is healthy again!

[Frank P]

mid level spin looks to be building some convection to its south, maybe working its way down and just might become the dominant spin, lots of activity and shear, who knows..

[rockyman]

Small pocket of sub-20 wind shear:

[KWT]

20kts still hardly condusive for development, I suppose with enough convection left to the south of the LLC and a MLC present well displaced this has a chance as long as it doesn't race too quickly to the west.

[Brent]

Not impressed with this mess at all, but it certainly bears watching. I'm just not bullish on much development.

[tolakram]

Pressures are down slightly:


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

Sat. loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Low is now over water, but look at the shear. Looks more like a router cutting through wood.

[N2Storms]

[quote]Not impressed with this mess at all, but it certainly bears watching. I'm just not bullish on much development[/quote]


Me either...I don't see it being much more than a nuisance for someone. I has been a very pleasant day here in PC...first dry day all week long. Nice breeze w / cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Really looking forward to a nice Holiday weekend.

[Ikester]

mid level spin looks to be building some convection to its south, maybe working its way down and just might become the dominant spin, lots of activity and shear, who knows..

As I have posted before, if you stir the top of a cup long enough, eventually the circulation makes its way to the bottom. If the mid-level swirl spins for a while, I'd DEFINITELY watch for this. Our futurecast here at the station spun something up last night. I remember Humberto so it ain't out of the question...pardon the slang. Okay, back to work. (this was my lunch break)

[HURAKAN]

Don't mess with the mess!!

[rockyman]

A tiny bit of blue is showing up on IR close to the low level center:

[xironman]

With the winds there obviously low at the surface.

[JonathanBelles]

With Alex's Fringe Effects and now newly declared invest 95L in the northern Gulf, my pool temperature went from 93 last week to 80 today. Currently sitting at 80 degrees outside in a dry spot.

[HURAKAN]

With Alex's Fringe Effects and now newly declared invest 95L in the northern Gulf, my pool temperature went from 93 last week to 80 today. Currently sitting at 80 degrees outside in a dry spot.

I just read that in facebook!!! LOL