EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 95, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 102N, 925W, 25, 1008, LO

[Aquawind]

So 18z is just 25kts and the next update is within the hour..ok next update will be upgrade..lol Sat loop looks pretty good..

[cycloneye]

233
ABPZ20 KNHC 222332
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM THIS EVENING OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[cycloneye]

We will have TD Five-E. If it forms into a Tropical Storm,the name will be Darby.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep952010_ep052010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006230023
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[KWT]

Well this early season has really exploded...gotta wonder though whether this will be the EPAC's version of Atl 1997?

[hurricaneCW]

I heard JB say that the east pacific activity is caused from developing African waves except they are too far south to develop on our side so they develop in the pacific. As time goes on, the waves with move further north so the east pacific developments may be a precursor to our season except we got the very favorable conditions on our side this season.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 230231
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 93.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. AT 800 PM PDT...0300
UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE AREA SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR A MODEST
STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 11.0N 93.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 11.5N 94.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 12.0N 96.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 97.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 99.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[fernandingas]

Hola el sistema ya es la DEPRESION TROPICAL 5

[cycloneye]

Hola el sistema ya es la DEPRESION TROPICAL 5

Bienvenido al foro y espero que participes en los distintos foros que tenemos.

Welcome to the board and participate in the forums that we have.

[fernandingas]

Gracias Cicloneye y a todos, soy de Centro America y con la experiencia de la Tormenta Tropical Agatha fusionada con la ceniza del Volcan de Pacaya, los he encontrado a ustedes y preocupa la trayectoria de Invest93L rumbo a el Golfo de Mexico y su paso por Haiti, me gusta mucho su foro.

[cycloneye]

Gracias Cicloneye y a todos, soy de Centro America y con la experiencia de la Tormenta Tropical Agatha fusionada con la ceniza del Volcan de Pacaya, los he encontrado a ustedes y preocupa la trayectoria de Invest93L rumbo a el Golfo de Mexico y su paso por Haiti, me gusta mucho su foro.

Precisamente,tenemos un topico solo para los que viven en el Caribe y Centro America que tu puedes ir y postear las observaciones de tu area en particular.El enlace esta abajo.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[Macrocane]

Gracias Cicloneye y a todos, soy de Centro America y con la experiencia de la Tormenta Tropical Agatha fusionada con la ceniza del Volcan de Pacaya, los he encontrado a ustedes y preocupa la trayectoria de Invest93L rumbo a el Golfo de Mexico y su paso por Haiti, me gusta mucho su foro.

Que bueno tener a otro centroamericano en el foro, yo soy salvadoreño y tengo un año de estar participando, he aprendido bastante aqui, en el topico que mencionó cycloneye pongo observaciones de El Salvador y cuando hay frentes frios o ciclones tambien pongo observaciones de otros paises de la region.

[Macrocane]

I have been searching for another Hurricane Season with 5 systems before June 23 and I couldn't find one. There are some seasons that had 5 systems in the May-Jun period but with the 5th system forming after June 22, for example in 1997 TD-5E developed in June 29, in 1992 there were 6 systems but 2 of them were CPAC storms so if someone knows other season with a start as fast as 2010 let me know.

[brunota2003]

me no habla Espanol, haha!

Welcome, though =]

[clfenwi]

I have been searching for another Hurricane Season with 5 systems before June 23 and I couldn't find one. There are some seasons that had 5 systems in the May-Jun period but with the 5th system forming after June 22, for example in 1997 TD-5E developed in June 29, in 1992 there were 6 systems but 2 of them were CPAC storms so if someone knows other season with a start as fast as 2010 let me know.

Keep in mind that the official track file archives do not include tropical depressions, so if a source is compiled electronically, it's probably missing TDs for pre-internet age seasons (Unisys, for example). According to Wikipedia, though, the 1982 season had its 5th TD on June 16.

Looking in terms of named storms, the 1974, 1990, and 1991 seasons were ahead of the pace set so far (with regards to a 4th named storm).

[Macrocane]

Thanks for the reply, so we can assure that this has been the most active start of the season since 1992 in terms of named systems.

[Chacor]

As I pointed out on page 1, the last time we had four named storms by the end of June was 1991. Well, we have TS Darby.

EP, 05, 2010062306, , BEST, 0, 114N, 936W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 45, 45, 1010, 180, 45, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,

[Ad Novoxium]

:uarrow: Thanks for the reply, so we can assure that this has been the most active start of the season since 1992 in terms of named systems.

I usually do believe in coincidences, and here is yet another. We have the most active start in named storms this season with Darby since 1992. It's worth it to note that 2010 has the same names list 1992 did.

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