SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[Macrocane]

The 12z ECMWF depicts a very interesting scenario with two intense cyclones in a fujiwhara effect, we cannot talk about consistency yet, although the model has been very consistent showing this system as an intense cyclone near Madagascar and the should carefully monitor the progress of the system.

Euro 192 hours

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better now

[HURAKAN]

06/0230 UTC 12.6S 83.6E T2.5/2.5 98S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 893
WTIO30 FMEE 060640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 82.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 080 SO: 150 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/06 18 UTC: 13.3S/80.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/01/07 06 UTC: 13.8S/79.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 14.8S/76.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.0S/72.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKEN (CF. CIMSS DATA).
DIVERGENCE IS STRENGTHENING EQUATORWARDS. LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND
OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE 72H.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AT LEAST.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.4S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
061137Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 07S IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH NO SPECIFIC OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC
EDZANI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OVER WATER WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS EDZANI MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMO AND GFS
MODELS DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INDICATIVE OF A ZONAL MID-
LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS INDICATING A
MORE POLEWARD-DIPPING TRACK CAUSED BY A DEEPER, RIDGE-WEAKENING
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE JTWC CONSENSUS WHICH
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREMES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

06/1430 UTC 13.1S 81.7E T2.5/2.5 EDZANI

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 334
WTIO30 FMEE 061822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/06 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 80.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 250
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/07 06 UTC: 14.4S/79.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.8S/78.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 15.9S/75.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.5S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.4S/71.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0
FT BASED ON MET (PT AGREES)
GOOD CONFDENCE IN FIX POSITION ACCORDING TO LATEST MW IMAGERY
(WINDSAT
1233Z AND TRMM 1502Z).
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
LOW LEVELS INFLOW AND OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL ARE FAVOURABLE OVER THE
ALL
FORECAST PERIOD.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING REGULARLY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS
AND THEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE ACCORDING TO THE GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST RANGE.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 40 knots

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JAN 2010 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:35:45 S Lon : 80:46:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's getting close to or at hurricane intensity

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good. NRL - 50 knots

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 175
WTIO30 FMEE 070048 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/07 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 80.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1450
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/07 12 UTC: 14.5S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/08 00 UTC: 15.0S/77.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/76.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/75.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 16.9S/73.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 17.8S/70.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
FT BASED ON MET (RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER TH ELAST 24 HOURS). PT
AGREES
.
MW IMAGERY (AMSRE 2010Z AND NOAA 19 2046Z) SHOW A BUILDING EYE AT THE
MID
-LEVEL (CHANNEL 89/91 GHZ). IN THE LOW LEVEL, LLCC HAS IMPROVED SINCE
TRMM PASS OF 1502Z WITH CONTRACTION OF RMW.
SINCE 20Z, SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED.
IT IS LIKELY THAT INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ADVOSORY HAS BEEEN
UNDERESTIMATED AS SYSTEM HAS PRESENTED A CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 0.8O
(T 3
.5) FEW TIMES AFTER THE FIX.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
A POLEWARDS OUTFLOW SHOULD BUID TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS ALSO OVER HIGH HEAT
CONTENT
WATERS ...
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES HAD PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS
OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS REGARDS TO THE CORRESPONDING SHIFT OF ECMWF'S
TRACKS ..
. OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD (UP TO 72 HOURS), THE SPREAD IS RATHER LOW
BUT
IT IS GETTING STRONGER BEYOND THAT RANGE. AT TAU 72HRS, A WEAKNESS
SHOULD APPEAR
IN THE STR DUE TO A MID-LAT TROUGH. UKMO AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON HOW
STRONG
THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LAT TROUGH ON THE STR WILL BE ... ECMWF TAKES
A
MORE POLEWARDS TRACK AT TAU 96 AND TAU 120 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH. UKMO TAKES A MORE ZONAL TRACK WITH A STRONGER STR BUT TAKES
INTO
ACCOUNT A WEA
KER SYSTEM (LESS LIKELY).=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 873
WTIO30 FMEE 070611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/07 AT 0600 UTC :
14.1S / 80.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 15.9S/76.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.6S/74.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.5S/72.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 18.5S/70.7E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
THE SYSTEM KEEP ON INTENSIFYING DUE TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL
CONDITIONS, UN EYE IS VISIBLE ON SATELITE IIMAGERY SINCE 04Z.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
A POLEWARDS OUTFLOW SHOULD BUID TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS ALSO OVER HIGH HEAT
CONTENT
WATERS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON INTENSIFYING DURING THE PERIOD.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TPXS10 PGTW 070312

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI)

B. 07/0530Z

C. 14.0S

D. 80.0E

E. FOUR/MET7

F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. 18NM DG EYE SURR BY LG
SURR GRAY SHADE YIELDS A 5.0 DT. 0 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT WITH
BLACK RING. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 3.5. RAPID DEVELOPMENT
WARRANTS EYE FIX WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. DBO DT
AND PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0109Z 13.9S 80.3E AMSU
07/0127Z 13.9S 80.2E SSMS


SCANLIN

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JAN 2010 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:24 S Lon : 79:43:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************