ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[emeraldislencguy]

has anyone else noticed the satelite presentation fro sunny days-it sure looks like a rather pronounced jog to the left
any comments

[UpTheCreek]

up the creek
if you are away from the water you should be ok
Ilive about 75 yards form the ocean and i am leaving on thursday afternoon
going to board up my business and have already secured the house
if you are not in a storn surge area you should be ok

Thanks. It'll take quite a change west in the track to make us leave. I don't expect that to happen.

After seeing the evacuation news of Bogue Bank, I was thinking of you. Good luck, I hope you don't sustain any damage! You're staying safe, that's what really counts!

[UpTheCreek]

has anyone else noticed the satelite presentation fro sunny days-it sure looks like a rather pronounced jog to the left
any comments

I see that. Just another jog I believe....

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks up the creek
I appreciate your concern and prayers

[hurricaneCW]

Every jog is going to matter at this point because it's sooooooooooo close. It looks like it just crossed 74W. I'd guess 74.1 or 74.2W. I hope the storm follows the current track and especially goes east of it by tomorrow however I don't like how quickly it's moving to the north. If for any reason, the trough is just a few hours slower than forecast or the storm is just a little bit faster, than Earl is going to be a disaster of a storm.

[Sanibel]

The west movement is right in line with NHC predictions:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[SouthFloridawx]

[UpTheCreek]

All I can say is WOW, look at that thing!

[funster]

The west movement is right in line with NHC predictions:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

It is, but if it gets past about 75 west it is on the west side of NHC's cone and the west side of NHC's cone take Earl it over land.

[CronkPSU]

The west movement is right in line with NHC predictions:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

i think a lot of us were hoping they would be wrong the NHC puts it less than what, 30 miles off the coast? way too close to the OBX and the rest of the east coast

[SouthFloridawx]

If I lived on the Eastern Coast of North Carolina up through the NE, I would be trying to bring my preparations to completion. Outer bands start moving in way before you think they do. Once it starts raining, it's a real pain in the butt to get things done.

[allicat1214]

Looking at the radar all I can say is everyone on the east coast....stay safe!

I'll never forget what it felt like to hurry and pack and leave NOLA with a big monster storm heading our way....

If you stay, and you're inland, be prepared for days without power.....

My thoughts and prayers are with you !

[SouthFloridawx]

What I should have said was, I would be rushing, safely and bringing all my preparations to completion asap. Including any shutters/boards by tomorrow morning. I would be heading out to wally world to make sure I had all the supplies I needed to be without power for days. Was out of power for a couple of weeks, a couple of times. It's a real pain in the butt.

[BrianD]

Looking at the latest models I see them shifting the cone westward some more at the next update placing it almost eyewall going along OBX What Kind of surge can I expect here about 4 blocks from the Oceanfront in southeast VA Beach near NC Border. Also do believe this thing is going to be way way worse flooding wise than the Nor'easter that was the remnants of ida last yr. So curious as to what kind of water heights and or waves to expect here on the ocean front. Do know the southeast quad is usually the higher winds but what kind of winds should I be expecting or is it the rain that should be more worried about?

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

I have been following this board for a few years now and don't post often, but from the west coast to the east coast, I wanted to say stay safe and to let everyone know that my thoughts are with all of you. It is fun for me most of the time to see these products of nature form and to learn from them, until lives are at stake, then it brings a lot into perspective of what these storms can mean to the people that are threatened. I wish you all the best!

Colton

[UpTheCreek]

For those that don't visit the models thread, figured I'd put this up here once if that's okay. I'm not liking it!

GFS 30 hr.

[UpTheCreek]

I have been following this board for a few years now and don't post often, but from the west coast to the east coast, I wanted to say stay safe and to let everyone know that my thoughts are with all of you. It is fun for me most of the time to see these products of nature form and to learn from them, until lives are at stake, then it brings a lot into perspective of what these storms can mean to the people that are threatened. I wish you all the best!

Colton

Appreciate the thought, Colton......thanks!

[funster]

Here comes Earl - very early part of Earl: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[sponger]

The end of the run slams Mass! I think its time for coastal outer banks to seriously assess their storm surge risk. A close call with a major is not the time to be near the ocean!

[UpTheCreek]

Looking at the latest models I see them shifting the cone westward some more at the next update placing it almost eyewall going along OBX What Kind of surge can I expect here about 4 blocks from the Oceanfront in southeast VA Beach near NC Border. Also do believe this thing is going to be way way worse flooding wise than the Nor'easter that was the remnants of ida last yr. So curious as to what kind of water heights and or waves to expect here on the ocean front. Do know the southeast quad is usually the higher winds but what kind of winds should I be expecting or is it the rain that should be more worried about?

Well, you're obviously going to get both rain and surge. But in comparison to the wind and surge, the rain I think is just a nuisance. I don't want to be an alarmist, that's not my style. But you're in a location that, in my opinion, has a very good chance of being absolutely devastated.