ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, for some reason some of the models are not very impressed.

Nam into Mobile but weak

[sunnyday]

Can someone please explain in simple terms why the "storms" are fizzling out this year? Is the wind shear much stronger than usual?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Upper Lows, to many this year so far.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gotta love the GFS....12z = Sabine Pass....18z = NOLA

At least EURO is consistent...LOL

[KFDM Meteorologist]

God no kidding! Most inconsistant i ve ever seen. Nogaps has been more consistant than the GFS.

[Ivanhater]

18z Vort looks like Mississippi...not overly impressed though

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Been a strange year so far.

[HouTXmetro]

I guess we can put all this Texas talk to rest now. lol

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Next run GFS will have Texas again.

[sunnyday]

You're so right; it has been a strange year so far. If all of the many predicted storms occur this season, I will be very surprised, but the ones who predicted such a busy year still stand by their numbers for the most part.

[ROCK]

I guess we can put all this Texas talk to rest now. lol

lets see where the center developes first....

[KWT]

The models sure don't do much with this one but I think they tend to be quite poor when they are handling these sorts of home brew cold cored origin type systems...quite clearly we have a system that is starting to develop and so quite a few of these models will bust right from the get go...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Maybe so but the system needs to get stacked first.

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Tropical Models run

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2209 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  0600   100811  1800   100812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.7N  83.9W   26.4N  85.3W   27.5N  86.8W   28.3N  88.0W
BAMD    25.7N  83.9W   26.5N  85.5W   27.6N  87.4W   28.8N  89.2W
BAMM    25.7N  83.9W   26.5N  85.4W   27.7N  87.1W   28.8N  88.5W
LBAR    25.7N  83.9W   26.0N  85.3W   26.7N  87.0W   27.5N  88.6W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800   100815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  88.9W   31.6N  89.9W   34.2N  88.8W   34.3N  87.1W
BAMD    29.9N  90.7W   32.1N  92.6W   35.1N  91.8W   38.3N  84.4W
BAMM    29.9N  89.6W   32.1N  90.4W   34.6N  88.7W   35.5N  84.9W
LBAR    28.2N  90.0W   29.8N  92.1W   31.9N  92.6W   34.0N  90.6W
SHIP        40KTS          50KTS          61KTS          62KTS
DSHP        35KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.7N LONCUR =  83.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  25.5N LONM12 =  83.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  25.9N LONM24 =  82.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KWT]

Most models now give this about 48hrs over water based on a slightly quicker forward motion...

Whats going to be key is the exact angle of approach, even 5-10 degrees further west then the model predicts gives this system a good 12hrs longer over water.

[KWT]

Wow look at 94L on the 18z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_192m.gif

Yes...thats 94L...back...for a 2nd time at 192hrs!

[SunnyThoughts]

I just saw that also KWT, what a fluke that would be.

[lester]

Wow look at 94L on the 18z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_192m.gif

Yes...thats 94L...back...for a 2nd time at 192hrs!

It's 18z...throw it out!

[dixiebreeze]

God no kidding! Most inconsistant i ve ever seen. Nogaps has been more consistant than the GFS.

I've always like Nogaps for short termers, but in my very amateur opinion, I don't think any models handle home grown systems in the big pond very well.

[ROCK]

WHATS really going to be interesting is that none of the models really anticipated the rapid organization we are seeing currently....how does that translate to track and intensity down the road...might not even make LA more towards the Big Bend....it aint moved at all from the last Best Track position...