ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

The strongest convection it has over it right now, in IR colors, are white and blue...not very convincing for a TD.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think anyone expects it to be a TD yet....Probably in the next 48 hours it will be though.

[Brent]

I don't think anyone expects it to be a TD yet....Probably in the next 48 hours it will be though.

Gonna be inland by then.

[ROCK]

poof!! where is bones?

[ToxicTiger]

Stable, dry air on 3 sides just sucked the life out of 95L.

[bahamaswx]

could refire, but this one looks done.

[brunota2003]

It gave it a run for the money...but came up just short! It will be remembered fondly as the little storm that couldn't!

[ozonepete]

Stable, dry air on 3 sides just sucked the life out of 95L.

That particular satellite imagery doesn't accurately show mid-level dry air. It picks up higher level dry air which blocks the refecltivity of mid-level water vapor. Tropical cyclones are not affected by upper level dry air at all. It's MID-LEVEL dry air that causes their thunderstorms to collapse. Use CIMSS mid-level water vapor.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 95L is out. However, I think convection could flare up again considering it is nighttime.

[Sanibel]

Poof. That other stuff might have been one last burst. But we have seen stranger comebacks...

[ToxicTiger]

That particular satellite imagery doesn't accurately show mid-level dry air. It picks up higher level dry air which blocks the refecltivity of mid-level water vapor. Tropical cyclones are not affected by upper level dry air at all. It's MID-LEVEL dry air that causes their thunderstorms to collapse. Use CIMSS mid-level water vapor.

Thanks Ozonepete. There is still a lot of dry air to the north, northwest and west of 95L on this image. That is a less than favorable environment for a small, developing tropical system. It's not like 95L carried a large moisture field with her to protect her core.

[Stormcenter]

I believe it's starting to flare up again.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Poof. That other stuff might have been one last burst. But we have seen stranger comebacks...

[Stormcenter]

Here is a good radar loop of 95L. Some pretty decent convection
considering how far out the radar is looking at it from.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

850
ABNT20 KNHC 050539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Stormcenter]

I guess this was prepared before the latest flare up.

850
ABNT20 KNHC 050539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[TheEuropean]

05/0545 UTC 27.7N 90.6W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

convection is flaring up.

[ozonepete]

That particular satellite imagery doesn't accurately show mid-level dry air. It picks up higher level dry air which blocks the refecltivity of mid-level water vapor. Tropical cyclones are not affected by upper level dry air at all. It's MID-LEVEL dry air that causes their thunderstorms to collapse. Use CIMSS mid-level water vapor.

Thanks Ozonepete. There is still a lot of dry air to the north, northwest and west of 95L on this image. That is a less than favorable environment for a small, developing tropical system. It's not like 95L carried a large moisture field with her to protect her core.

Thanks, Tiger. I tried to get that image but CIMSS was down before. The only other thing I would add here is that small systems such as this DON'T need a large field of moist air like bigger storms do. And as a matter of fact, the amount of mid-level moisture from the image you posted is not bad at all. So I would still not be that surprised if this develops into a TD or TS anyway, although I'd be a LITTLE surprised. It will just break a few records for tiniest. But remember Grace from last year.

[KWT]

Yep another convective pluse again with 95L, lets see how long this burst can last this time round.

[tolakram]

The party is almost over.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like its going to be inland pretty soon, still it gave us a little excitment briefly!