ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[bvigal]

998.6 mb extrapolated, wow

No real surprise though, Sandy, from the sat pics we've been seeing. These are simply breathtaking.

[cycloneye]

STWO -

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE IS FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
TOMAS AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD ALSO
THEN BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

Waiting for first advisory here in PR and I am sure are all of our Caribbean friends.

[neospaceblue]

Did Sebastien and Tanya or Stan and Tammy exist at the same time? Just wondering.

[GCANE]

A lot of overshooting tops just started to fire on the north bands.

[Evil Jeremy]

invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al212010.ren

Updated best track:
AL, 21, 2010102918, , BEST, 0, 108N, 568W, 35, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 40, 1009, 250, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TOMAS, M,

[latitude_20]

Finally!

[fci]

Still did not pull the trigger and name it?

[Ntxw]

Beautiful storm, looks very healthy. Bless those in it's path. Certainly a Halloween scare.

[clfenwi]

Did Sebastien and Tanya or Stan and Tammy exist at the same time? Just wondering.

Stan dissipated a few hours before Tammy formed. There was two days separation between Sebastien and Tanya. See 1995 and 2005 season pages.

[Ivanhater]

Track is highly uncertain still. Latest Euro has it left behind in the Caribbean gaining strength.

This could be a big one.

[bvigal]

[margiek]

Still did not pull the trigger and name it?

It was started within a minute of the recon pass through the center. Advisory package already ready to go would be my guess, I hope we have a special advisory rather than wait two hours. Cannot believe Tomas was started at 35 kt instead of 40 kt.

[cycloneye]

Decoded first Vortex Message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 18:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10°55'N 56°46'W (10.9167N 56.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 244 miles (393 km) to the SE (128°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 40kts (From the NE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:26:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SOME SPIRAL BANDING. SFC CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST

[latitude_20]

Should be interesting to see what the models cough up now that we have good init data.

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

What a storm in the making....

[Gustywind]

[fci]

So judging on the fact that at this time 91L has vanished from the S2K map at the top if the page; we an presume that Tomas has officially been proclaimed?

[cycloneye]

So judging on the fact that at this time 91L has vanished from the S2K map at the top if the page; we an presume that Tomas has officially been proclaimed?

That is correct.

[HURAKAN]

NRL:

90L.INVEST
21L.TWENTYONE
20L.SHARY