ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Vortex]

excellent outflow this morning...once she moves through the more stable air convection should really fire tonight and I think we go from TD to Fiona in a matter of hours..

[ROCK]

excellent outflow this morning...once she moves through the more stable air convection should really fire tonight and I think we go from TD to Fiona in a matter of hours..

I agree.....the stable air has been keeping her in check....looks to be abating some but still being entrained....

[jlauderdal]

excellent outflow this morning...once she moves through the more stable air convection should really fire tonight and I think we go from TD to Fiona in a matter of hours..

I agree.....the stable air has been keeping her in check....looks to be abating some but still being entrained....

staying just weak enough to stay south and just strong enough to stay together, a very good setup for the long term

[ROCK]

Regarding the Euro I think within the next run or so well find that it begins to lock over an area run to run. It was just east of NC yesterday morning, then SC in the afternoon and now s/central fl this morning. Notice the trend. My guess is we may see a bit of a further adjustment south with today's runs based on the ensembles in the longer range. Thereafter, the fluctuations will likely be smaller and a certain area will probablly come under the gun...

EURO does good at sniffing out different scenarios in the long range. Ike was a prefect example. I think its trending south but how far south will it go is the big question...

[dexterlabio]

Just want to ask...did Jeanne and Frances managed to go into the GOM after hitting FL?

[Vortmax1]

My guess is we may see a bit of a further adjustment south with today's runs based on the ensembles in the longer range.

Yes, I'm thinking along those lines also.
The ECM is the lead dog at recognizing the longer range set-up based on my experience. Unless 97L gets cranked up to TS strength or better soon I wouldn't be surprised to see more south and westward tracking.

[Cyclone1]

Just want to ask...did Jeanne and Frances managed to go into the GOM after hitting FL?

Frances did barely, but moved back into Florida.

[LAwxrgal]

She's a small little system so far. If she strengthens will she grow in size or do we just not know yet? I know the smaller systems tend to spin up more quickly, that's why I'm asking.

[Migle]

Can someone explain how this isnt a Tropical Depression? IMO it's been a Tropical Depression for at least the past 24 hours.

[LowndesCoFire]

Just want to ask...did Jeanne and Frances managed to go into the GOM after hitting FL?

Frances = Barely...
Jeanne stayed inland and never re-emerged.

[edgeblade]

Can someone explain how this isnt a Tropical Depression? IMO it's been a Tropical Depression for at least the past 24 hours.

Got me, I'm thinking the same thing. Also I personally thought Earl was a hurricane last night. Pressure is just a few higher than Danielle's current and she is Cat 2. Yes I know more than pressure is taken into account, but still...

[senorpepr]

Can someone explain how this isnt a Tropical Depression? IMO it's been a Tropical Depression for at least the past 24 hours.

As long as microwave imagery suggests it's still a broad low/wave, it will likely not be upgraded to a depression. (Although I've seen worse...)

[artist]

Can someone explain how this isnt a Tropical Depression? IMO it's been a Tropical Depression for at least the past 24 hours.

As long as microwave imagery suggests it's still a broad low/wave, it will not be upgraded to a depression.

hey senor! So good to see you! What are your reasoned thoughts on both Earl and this invest?

[emeraldislencguy]

I am beginning to think it will never become a depression
what does anytone else think

[Blown Away]

FROM 11AM EARL DISCO: THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

What does a faster exiting Earl do for 97L?? IMO, it may allow for 97L farther west.

[mpic]

Probably a really stupid question, but do storms "gobble up" energy and take it with them? Is that the reason why Earl has less recurve as Danielle and maybe "Fiona" will have even less?

[ROCK]

FROM 11AM EARL DISCO: THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

What does a faster exiting Earl do for 97L?? IMO, it may allow for 97L farther west.

the ridge pushes Earl out and builds in...similar to the ECM solution we have been watching....

[emeraldislencguy]

why wouldnt they name it
that is hard to beleive they are afraid to name it

[senorpepr]

I am beginning to think it will never become a depression
what does anytone else think

It already is a Tropical Depression, NHC just doesn't want to name it for some reason.

Please explain why you think it's a tropical depression? Based on the data that's available, it appears to be a very broad low, if not a wave. Looking at the microwave imagery, I agree with it NOT being a depression.

[ROCK]

Probably a really stupid question, but do storms "gobble up" energy and take it with them? Is that the reason why Earl has less recurve as Danielle and maybe "Fiona" will have even less?

upwelling is what TC do.. if another storm were to pass over the same track it would have less to work with....not really coming to into play in this case....