ATL: EARL - Models

[x-y-no]

12z GFS at 48 hours - Earl headed due west, center near 17N 50W

Danielle moving slowly north, center near 29N 61W

[SFLcane]

Heading westward with a possible heading to the WNW @ 78hrs 12z GFS

[HurrMark]

So far Earl is a tad south... and Danielle is a tad north of 06Z.

[SFLcane]

96hrs

[x-y-no]

12z GFS ... 96 hours

Pretty close to the northern leewards, but missing them - moving WNW center near 19N 60W

Danielle heading quickly NE

[HurrMark]

Much closer to the northernmost islands this time (at 96 hrs)

[Aric Dunn]

Does not look like its going to get picked up this time unless it does a very hard right turn ... its a good 150 miles SW of the previous run..

[x-y-no]

Mid-level weakness still looks substantial ...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it misses the weakness this time.. that and the east coast ridge is stronger and farther SE...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Yeah that shows how tight this will be, even a 1-2 degree difference and a slightly faster movement from Danielle could well make it miss the connection.

As I said, I'm far from convinced this even misses the NE Islands totally, may scrape them IMO...though to be honest the weakness left by Danielle is still pretty large as others have said.

[HurrMark]

Interesting run through 132 hrs...Danielle is moving out a lot quicker, and this mearns that it can move further west before the recurve begins.

[SFLcane]

126hrs

[KWT]

Yeah and note Danielle is forecasted to lift out to the NE sooner which means the upper weakness is moving eastwards a bit quicker then progged...

The first upper trough possibly won't do the job of lifting this one out though the pattern still looks troughy...

BUT if it gets to say 65-70W below 25N then odds rise in a very big way for a threat to the E.coast...

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah that shows how tight this will be, even a 1-2 degree difference and a slightly faster movement from Danielle could well make it miss the connection.

As I said, I'm far from convinced this even misses the NE Islands totally, may scrape them IMO...though to be honest the weakness left by Danielle is still pretty large as others have said.

right well its seems Danielle is going to pull out faster than forecast before and Earl is still weak and having some troubles which should keep it farther south in the short term at least. So the Islands are still not out of the woods nor is the east coast.

[HurrMark]

Still moving NW at about 69W (150 hrs) at about the latitude of Miami. Ridge isn't super strong, but it's strong enough so far to keep the west component going...

A weak Fiona/TD Nine seems to be feeling the weakness in the wake of Danielle..

[Vortex]

big shift west on the 12z...

[HurrMark]

Starting to recurve at 174 as a decent weather system pulls into the Great Lakes region...

[Vortex]

could clip NC....but its the trend thats important for now.

[KWT]

Upper trough coming along by 168hrs which should lift it out but its close enough to the east coast by this point that it could be a real threat.

Does anyone else think maybe the GFS is a touch fast as well for Earl?

Lets see what the rest of the 12z runs show!

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a NC to NE possible threat on this run or recurve very close