ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Right Rock, it is a blend. You will see the NHC mention in the discussion quite often "and track is in close agreement with the TVCN model"

It is the easiest way to see how the NHC track will look like before hand...

[ROCK]

I was beating the west drum last night but I kept getting beat down by the NAM, NOGAPS, CMC...this was after the 0z EURO....you guys need to keep the faith!!

[ROCK]

Right Rock, it is a blend. You will see the NHC mention in the discussion quite often "and track is in close agreement with the TVCN model"

It is the easiest way to see how the NHC track will look like before hand...

Yes but for the neebies out there the TVCN is just a blend and not an independent model. Just clarifying my NAM posting brother...

[LaBreeze]

Right Rock, it is a blend. You will see the NHC mention in the discussion quite often "and track is in close agreement with the TVCN model"

It is the easiest way to see how the NHC track will look like before hand...

Yes but for the neebies out there the TVCN is just a blend and not an independent model. Just clarifying my NAM posting brother...

Very good work, Rock. I was unaware of what the TVCN was. Thanks!

[Pearl River]

From the NHC and MIT:

TVCN:

TVCN - Variable Consensus of AVNI/2, EGRI/2, NGPI/2, GHMI/2, HWRI/2, EMXI/2)

Any acronym with an 'I' as the last letter is the model run from 6 hours prior interpolated to the analysis time.

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

[ROCK]

From the NHC and MIT:

TVCN:

TVCN - Variable Consensus of AVNI/2, EGRI/2, NGPI/2, GHMI/2, HWRI/2, EMXI/2)

Any acronym with an 'I' as the last letter is the model run from 6 hours prior interpolated to the analysis time.

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

looks like a bunch of GFS ensembles and or extended family. Got a NOGAPS brother in there and a NAM cousin.....

[Ivanhater]

EMXI is the Euro

[ROCK]

EMXI is the Euro

good catch..... which should be out very soon.....I might have to go into hiding after this run....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO landfall NOLA Thursday.

[thetruesms]

From the NHC and MIT:

TVCN:

TVCN - Variable Consensus of AVNI/2, EGRI/2, NGPI/2, GHMI/2, HWRI/2, EMXI/2)

Any acronym with an 'I' as the last letter is the model run from 6 hours prior interpolated to the analysis time.

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

looks like a bunch of GFS ensembles and or extended family. Got a NOGAPS brother in there and a NAM cousin.....

GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, HWRF, GFS, GFDL-Navy, and Euro, respectively

[MWatkins]

FWIW

The model consensus beats any individual model (and often times, indivudual official forecasts) over any forecast interval you want to measure. Ignoring the TVCN is ignoring the best possible model in the aggregate...

I don't have time today to get into model verification and deterministic vs. probabilistic forecasting...but I can say that looking at any one point and seeing if a model "hits" it or not at any point in time will result in a "bad" forecast almost 100% of the time. By that standard, they are all failures.

However, one crazy outlier can force the whole consensus to shift in a weird direction...if you look at the model tracks for Wilma in 2005, they had it retrograding into the western Caribbean because the GFDL had a wacky solution. So yeah, the TVCN could be way too far left because of the GFS component...

And if you look at the 12Z GFS, it moves 94L quickly compared to the other models...and by the very slow current motion...the 12Z GFS is probably already off by 30MN.

That would suggest...to me that an eventual landfall for 94L is more likely east of New Orleans than west of there.

MW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO landfall NOLA Thursday.

[ROCK]

FWIW

The model consensus beats any individual model (and often times, indivudual official forecasts) over any forecast interval you want to measure. Ignoring the TVCN is ignoring the best possible model in the aggregate...

I don't have time today to get into model verification and deterministic vs. probabilistic forecasting...but I can say that looking at any one point and seeing if a model "hits" it or not at any point in time will result in a "bad" forecast almost 100% of the time. By that standard, they are all failures.

However, one crazy outlier can force the whole consensus to shift in a weird direction...if you look at the model tracks for Wilma in 2005, they had it retrograding into the western Caribbean because the GFDL had a wacky solution. So yeah, the TVCN could be way too far left because of the GFS component...

And if you look at the 12Z GFS, it moves 94L quickly compared to the other models...and by the very slow current motion...the 12Z GFS is probably already off by 30MN.

That would suggest...to me that an eventual landfall for 94L is more likely east of New Orleans than west of there.

MW

Oh no doubt that is why the NHC uses it. I totally agree. However I do look at model solutions that are against the current consensus. You never know if it is the front runner of a shift or not....my only point..

[ROCK]

12Z EURO landfall NOLA Thursday.

Where were you at 2:30am last night.. ..you got this run out about 30 minutes early.....sheesh

[HouTXmetro]

where did the Euro show landfall last run?

[Agua]

Sure wish Mike was still doing his Talkin' Tropics show.

You were good man.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

021
WHXX01 KWBC 101823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  0600   100811  1800   100812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.8N  83.7W   26.5N  85.3W   27.4N  87.0W   28.1N  88.5W
BAMD    25.8N  83.7W   26.4N  85.5W   27.5N  87.6W   28.7N  89.5W
BAMM    25.8N  83.7W   26.5N  85.4W   27.7N  87.1W   28.7N  88.6W
LBAR    25.8N  83.7W   26.0N  85.1W   26.6N  86.7W   27.4N  88.3W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800   100815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.1N  89.8W   31.1N  92.1W   33.9N  93.4W   34.5N  93.7W
BAMD    29.8N  91.1W   31.9N  92.6W   34.4N  90.8W   35.5N  86.0W
BAMM    29.8N  89.8W   31.9N  90.8W   34.2N  89.1W   34.5N  85.9W
LBAR    28.0N  89.7W   29.5N  91.8W   31.5N  92.6W   33.4N  90.9W
SHIP        40KTS          48KTS          56KTS          58KTS
DSHP        34KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.8N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  25.5N LONM12 =  82.7W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  25.9N LONM24 =  82.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[gatorcane]

12Z EURO landfall NOLA Thursday.

12Z UKMET also shows NOLA between 48-60 hours from now. Will go with the ECMWF/UKMET solution over the GFS solution at this point.

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF - runs more north along FL west coast to Tampa and then turns W-NW to mouth of Miss. Weak tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010081012-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dean4Storms]

The longer this sits I think the further eastward the models may shift. They all have been showing this system getting on the move yet it sits. I can only think that the weakness and trough that they have 94L turning into moves a bit further eastward in time, so my reasoning!