ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[AJC3]

Here's the 2046 UTC AMSU-B pass from NOAA-16. Pretty much supports the 21 UTC NHC position on the very eastern edge of the formative central convective mass.

[Aquawind]

Shear relaxing... Igor looks to add some big time ACE numbers..

[srainhoutx]

No doubt this will likely be a large cyclone. With shear relaxing look for an expansion of convective area.

[SouthFLTropics]

Danielle was big...Earl was bigger...

Is Igor going to go for biggest and baddest? Based on the current sat presentation I'd say he's shooting for it!

[KWT]

Certainly Aquawind, I've gone for 35-45 units of ACE this time for Igor, I've been a little high with other systems but this one looks like it'll last a little longer and become stronger quicker then the other two major hurricanes...

Should be a major hurricane I suspect as well given conditions ahead of it.

[deltadog03]

Are we chuggin' SW right now????

[blazess556]

Are we chuggin' SW right now????

yeah i think so. maybe 260 right now?

[OURAGAN]

I notice that direction to 260°W since 3 hours

[MWatkins]

Hard to tell, the convective mass might be rotating to the south around the larger circulation, but I don't think there's any question Igor's motion in the last 3 hours hasn't been north of 270.

Perhaps the convection will tug the center a tad south in the next several hours...

Though few of the models suggested a WSW track, they have been calling for that with other cyclones in this part of the basin this year...

MW

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like maybe the ridge is pushing Igor a bit WSW, this could get interesting for the northern Leewards if this trend keeps up tonight!!

[AJC3]

Hard to tell, the convective mass might be rotating to the south around the larger circulation, but I don't think there's any question Igor's motion in the last 3 hours hasn't been north of 270.

Perhaps the convection will tug the center a tad south in the next several hours...

Though few of the models suggested a WSW track, they have been calling for that with other cyclones in this part of the basin this year...

MW

The next couple SSM/I passes will be valuable toward that end, not only w/r/t the short term track, but also as to how well the LLC is tucking in beneath the formative CDO.

[MWatkins]

Hard to tell, the convective mass might be rotating to the south around the larger circulation, but I don't think there's any question Igor's motion in the last 3 hours hasn't been north of 270.

Perhaps the convection will tug the center a tad south in the next several hours...

Though few of the models suggested a WSW track, they have been calling for that with other cyclones in this part of the basin this year...

MW

The next couple SSM/I passes will be valuable toward that end, not only w/r/t the short term track, but also as to how well the LLC is tucking in beneath the formative CDO.

Great point...loading up the NRL page now! Love the microwave imagery...this is the most interesting storm I've watched in a long time. Not exactly sure why, maybe the size?

MW

[jlauderdal]

Shear relaxing... Igor looks to add some big time ACE numbers..

We may have a bunch of fish but we sure are racking up some big ACE this year

[Weatherboy1]

So I know its far out ... and normally I'd write off a storm north of 15 that far east in the Atlantic as a fish ... but any thoughts on long-term track here? Is this trough going to be enough to capture Igor? Or just slow it down, then have him get caught under the next ridge? Just curious?

[cycloneye]

Shear relaxing... Igor looks to add some big time ACE numbers..

We may have a bunch of fish but we sure are racking up some big ACE this year

64.215 right now. Well ahead of EPAC and WPAC.

[AJC3]

Great point...loading up the NRL page now! Love the microwave imagery...this is the most interesting storm I've watched in a long time. Not exactly sure why, maybe the size?

MW

My first guess as to the apparent WSW movement is that a minor change in the shear vector relative to the LLC has caused the CDO-type feature to become repositioned to the WSW, rather than due west, of the LLC. Even if that's the case, a LLC will often "jump" downshear toward the center of the central convective mass in order to become vertically stacked.

Need those SSM/I passes.

[cycloneye]

The Best Track update will come shortly to see the new position.

[gatorcane]

Hard to tell, the convective mass might be rotating to the south around the larger circulation, but I don't think there's any question Igor's motion in the last 3 hours hasn't been north of 270.

Perhaps the convection will tug the center a tad south in the next several hours...

Though few of the models suggested a WSW track, they have been calling for that with other cyclones in this part of the basin this year...

MW

The next couple SSM/I passes will be valuable toward that end, not only w/r/t the short term track, but also as to how well the LLC is tucking in beneath the formative CDO.

Several modes suggested a WSW movement several days ago. So this movement doesn't suprise me.

Though if it keeps up would likely see a southward shift in the NHC track for the next 48-72 hours with a bend WNW into a weakness and a slowing of forward speed for days 4 and 5....

[alan1961]

Centre is still probably off to the east of convection
but getting good inflow on the southern side and looking
in good shape..a few more jolts from the electrode and
mr monster mash be full of life

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091100, , BEST, 0, 170N, 342W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest