ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[dixiebreeze]

National Data Buoy Center data report Buoys in vicinity of Bonnie:



Storm Special! View the latest observations near Atlantic TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE as of INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A @ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010.

Observations - Radial Search
Observations near Tropical Depression Bonnie - position as of 07/24 0000 GMT
Distance is entered as nautical miles or kilometers depending on whether you choose English or Metric.

Latitude: (e.g. 30.5N or 30 30 0 N or 30 30 N)

Longitude: (e.g. 90W or 90 0 0 W or 90 0 W)

Unit of Measure: English Metric Distance (nautical miles/kilometers):

Observation Type: All Moored Buoy Ship/Drifting Buoy Time: current t-1 hour past hour t-2 hours past 2 hours t-3 hours past 3 hours t-4 hours past 4 hours t-5 hours past 5 hours t-6 hours past 6 hours t-7 hours past 7 hours t-8 hours past 8 hours t-9 hours past 9 hours t-10 hours past 10 hours t-11 hours past 11 hours t-12 hours past 12 hours t-13 hours t-14 hours t-15 hours t-16 hours t-17 hours t-18 hours t-19 hours t-20 hours t-21 hours t-22 hours t-23 hours


Not All Stations Depicted are Operated by the National Data Buoy Center.

775 observations from 07/23/2010 2100 GMT to 07/24/2010 0040 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F nmi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VENF1 C 0000 27.07 -82.45 40 4 40 9 11 - - - - 29.94 +0.00 80.1 85.1 77.7 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
NPSF1 O 0006 26.13 -81.81 41 113 140 7.0 12.0 - - - - 29.93 - - 85.1 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
NPSF1 O 0000 26.13 -81.81 41 113 140 9.9 14.0 - - - - 29.93 +0.09 - 85.1 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
CCUF1 O 0006 27.66 -82.62 76 355 50 26.0 28.0 - - - - 29.98 - 82.0 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
CCUF1 O 0000 27.66 -82.62 76 355 50 25.1 28.9 - - - - 29.98 -0.04 82.0 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SAPF1 O 0006 27.76 -82.63 82 355 60 9.9 19.0 - - - - 29.99 - 82.0 90.9 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SAPF1 O 0000 27.76 -82.63 82 355 60 12.0 17.1 - - - - 29.99 -0.03 81.9 90.9 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
OPTF1 O 0006 27.86 -82.55 88 358 60 11.1 14.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
OPTF1 O 0000 27.86 -82.55 88 358 50 7.0 13.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
ERTF1 O 0006 27.92 -82.44 91 2 60 8.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
ERTF1 O 0000 27.92 -82.44 91 2 50 9.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SBLF1 O 0000 27.92 -82.45 91 2 30 11.1 15.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
TPAF1 O 0006 27.93 -82.43 92 2 20 8.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
TSHF1 O 0006 27.93 -82.43 92 2 50 8.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
TPAF1 O 0000 27.93 -82.43 92 2 10 8.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
TSHF1 O 0000 27.93 -82.43 92 2 50 8.9 12.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
CWBF1 O 0006 27.98 -82.83 96 350 50 8.9 18.1 - - - - 29.97 - 80.1 87.3 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
CWBF1 O 0000 27.98 -82.83 96 350 50 9.9 14.0 - - - - 29.97 -0.04 80.1 87.3 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
PLSF1 C 0000 24.69 -82.77 104 188 40 8 9 - - - - 29.93 +0.02 82.9 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
KYWF1 O 0006 24.55 -81.81 117 161 - - - - - - - 29.91 - 84.9 85.5 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
KYWF1 O 0000 24.55 -81.81 117 161 - - - - - - - 29.91 +0.03 85.5 85.3 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SANF1 C 0000 24.46 -81.88 121 164 110 7 8 - - - - - - 83.3 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
VCAF1 O 0006 24.71 -81.11 126 143 140 6.0 11.1 - - - - 29.95 - 84.2 88.2 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
VCAF1 O 0000 24.71 -81.11 126 143 140 7.0 12.0 - - -

[lrak]

Watching Bonnie being torn to shreds by the ULL I was wondering is this a rare occurrence for an ULL to stay with the storm all the way to landfall? Why did Bonnie not feel the upper high pressure that was forecasted but instead got tricked into continuing in the ULL's deadly shear? She's like come on give me your best shot ULL, and the ULL laughs.

[x-y-no]

Vortex message:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT12/KNHC/

Huh ... this is a center?

Code: Select all

000130 2612N 08242W 9251 00782 0113 +216 //// 335013 014 028 002 05
000200 2613N 08240W 9245 00787 0107 +226 //// 305011 016 026 002 05
000230 2614N 08239W 9254 00776 0102 +239 +223 293004 006 017 000 03
000300 2616N 08238W 9246 00782 0104 +227 //// 085011 017 015 000 05
000330 2616N 08240W 9246 00782 0104 +227 +227 070013 015 017 002 03


exactly one reading that can pass for west wind ... pretty poor

[dixiebreeze]

Trying hard to be a TS again: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

[Vortmax1]

exactly one reading that can pass for west wind ... pretty poor

Yeah XYNO...but that's the first VDM on the flight.
We'll definitely see if there's any intensifying soon.

[shell70]

I am no professional. Just live along the coast for most of my life and I have seen too many storms do strange things. Bonnie is in the Gulf and I am in the cone and you better believe I am going to keep an eye on it. At the moment I would say that she will be TS when she makes landfall the second time. I just don't see conditions being favorable for being a hurricane or even a strong TS.

[HURAKAN]

Mammoth ULL dominates

[HURAKAN]

Compare Ike to the ULL, wow

[Vortmax1]

Yes Hurakan...Bonnie is just along for the ride it seems.
Have you checked the WV loop lately?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[kjg123]

A Few Questions and Comments about Bonnie....Does Bonnie seem to be moving on a slightly more westward path? Also, does anyone see that there seems to be more moisture being pulled in from the SW and SE? Bonnie may surprise us on Saturday. Remember, weaker storms, in the GOM, tend to become stronger as they approach landfall.

[lester]

did the atcf deactivate bonnie? sorry if it's off-topic

[Dean4Storms]

Intensity forecasting is one of the hardest facets in TC forecasting. With that said, no doubt TD Bonnie looks pretty pathetic this evening. However, any let up of the shearing effects and she could quickly explode, never write off a TC especially when over bath warm SST's in this kind of UL environment. All she needs is a small let up in the shear and she could organize quickly.

Glad I'm RV'ing in St Augustine Bch. and not back at home in Destin for a windy and soggy weekend!!

[Vortmax1]

Here's the wide view WV loop.
Bonnie has no place to go except where these ULL's squeeze her:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[redfish1]

A Few Questions and Comments about Bonnie....Does Bonnie seem to be moving on a slightly more westward path? Also, does anyone see that there seems to be more moisture being pulled in from the SW and SE? Bonnie may surprise us on Saturday. Remember, weaker storms, in the GOM, tend to become stronger as they approach landfall.

i think she is moving more westerly right now

[Dean4Storms]

Intensity forecasting is one of the hardest facets in TC forecasting. With that said, no doubt TD Bonnie looks pretty pathetic this evening. However, any let up of the shearing effects and she could quickly explode, never write off a TC especially when over bath warm SST's in this kind of UL environment. All she needs is a small let up in the shear and she could organize quickly.

Glad I'm RV'ing in St Augustine Bch. and not back at home in Destin for a windy and soggy weekend!!

[redfish1]

i am just an amateur so dont laugh, but is it possible for Bonnie to have a center relocation

[RL3AO]

exactly one reading that can pass for west wind ... pretty poor

They didn't pass though the south side of the circulation. Thats why there are so few west winds.

[HURAKAN]

Intensity forecasting is one of the hardest facets in TC forecasting. With that said, no doubt TD Bonnie looks pretty pathetic this evening. However, any let up of the shearing effects and she could quickly explode, never write off a TC especially when over bath warm SST's in this kind of UL environment. All she needs is a small let up in the shear and she could organize quickly.

Glad I'm RV'ing in St Augustine Bch. and not back at home in Destin for a windy and soggy weekend!!

But time is of the essence. It should be making landfall at this time tomorrow .

[mulley]

Compare Ike to the ULL, wow

Nice HuraKan. Just showed/explained the ULL and comparison to Ike the best I could
and I got the same reaction.

Wow!

[wxman57]

A Few Questions and Comments about Bonnie....Does Bonnie seem to be moving on a slightly more westward path? Also, does anyone see that there seems to be more moisture being pulled in from the SW and SE? Bonnie may surprise us on Saturday. Remember, weaker storms, in the GOM, tend to become stronger as they approach landfall.

To answer your first question, it's difficult to use IR satellite imagery (if you are) to judge movement of a low-level feature. The IR satellite will show thunderstorm tops moving westward toward the upper low, perhaps giving the impression that the LLC is moving westward. The center appears to be near 26.3N/82.8W as of 8PM CDT. That's based on one of the last visible image. So it appears to be moving WNW. Stripped of convection, the LLC might actually track more WNW than NW tonight. But it may have a hard time keeping convection near its center with the strong southerly flow aloft.

Yes, moisture is wrapping around the south side of the upper low from the SW and the west side of the ridge to the northeast (from the SE). The moisture is streaming (racing) NW toward the MS coast.

Looking at a surface plot, I'm not seeing much wind around/near the low. Just 50 miles to the east is a SE wind of 5 kts at Naples. And Ft. Myers 50 miles ENE has a SE wind of 5 kts. To the NE St. Petersburg has an ENE wind at 10 kts. No obs out over the water. Still just a remnant low. I'm doubtful that it'll ever really get its act together before moving inland in 24 hrs. Of course, any system with an LLC could develop very quickly in the Gulf if upper air conditions become favorable. That's not predicted, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen.