ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BONNIE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

[Ivanhater]

Last warning, if your post is not about Bonnie do not post it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[srainhoutx]

I found this part of the Advisory interesting...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
27 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

[somethingfunny]

I see something interesting in the visible loop. There appears to be cyclonic turning off Florida's east coast....I was looking for evidence of feeder bands and what I found is not good for Bonnie. I can't upload an image from this computer, but can you all see what I'm looking at? What do you think is going on here...another upper level feature?

[Ivanhater]

[redfish1]

is the center below the red blob?

[Macrocane]

Based on the last visible I would say it's just south of the blob.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

srainhoutx,
not being a smart a$$ but what about that part do you find interesting ? Seems it would gradually slow down a little as the ridge weakens on the western side and the steering currents subside a little before taking a more nw turn.

[HURAKAN]

000230 2614N 08239W 9254 00776 0102 +239 +223 293004 006 017 000 03

Bonnie pretty weak tonight, 1010 mb and barely a west wind.

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx,
not being a smart a$$ but what about that part do you find interesting ? Seems it would gradually slow down a little as the ridge weakens on the western side and the steering currents subside a little before taking a more nw turn.

If you recall, the 'slow down' was mentioned previously to be just prior to landfall. Infact the 5:00 PM Full Package Advisory states this...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED.

[x-y-no]

is the center below the red blob?

Based on recon, it doesn't look that way.

Maybe just south of it, although the last recon set was all over the place in wind direction ... possible it doesn't have a closed surface circulation at present.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Gotcha, maybe turn nw sooner around mobile than eastern la.

[MGC]

Sitting on pins and needles here...the anxiety is killing me. I hope the eye passes right over me. I have not been this nerveous since Ivan made that turn towards Gulf Shores that fateful September afternoon....Ooops did I forget Katrina? Anyway, now that Bonnie is back over water......as the depression pulls away from Florida, I expect the sytem to become a bit more organized. Bonnie will be moving with the shear somewhat so it might not be totally ripped to shreads....remember Wilma did kinda sorta the same thing....Rumors of Bonnies demise have been greatly exeragated.......MGC

[Javlin]

srainhoutx,
not being a smart a$$ but what about that part do you find interesting ? Seems it would gradually slow down a little as the ridge weakens on the western side and the steering currents subside a little before taking a more nw turn.

If you recall, the 'slow down' was mentioned previously to be just prior to landfall.

With the little bit of TS activity occuring,the ULL moving NW now and a possible slowdown prior to LF(shear relax??) could she get back to TS status??These little storms like Steve has mentioned are really neat and fun for us weather nerds take it all day.Kevin

[MWatkins]

Hopefully, this is considered "on topic"

One of my favorite things to look at on the planet is a visible satellite image of a growing thunderstorm complex as the sun is going down.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

Second only to a well defined eye at the same time of day.

Looks like a little convection is refiring...lets see if it can hold up overnight.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortmax1]

Vortex message:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT12/KNHC/

[Javlin]

Vortex message:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT12/KNHC/

Could she be TS status already?????

[Vortmax1]

I don't think she's at that level yet.
Pressure is only 1010mb.