ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[KWT]

Wow thats very far west indeed right into Texas. I agree it looks too far west but needs to be watched just in case its a new trend.

[Dean4Storms]

If it failed to develop or deepen it could remain in the low level flow and head toward Texas, but a TS or stronger storm will feel the trough and the weakness in the ridge and head poleward into it as most of the model consensus suggests.

[sphelps8681]

This model plot show the GFDL has moved further west compared to previous run.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_94.gif

[cycloneye]

There is the landfall by HWRF at 06z run.

[KWT]

Models give this system between 2-3 days in general over water, the GFDL is indeed a little further west and I think that may not be a bad call...

Lets see how strong the GFDL goes this time round, last run it got to hurricane strength.

[Wx_Warrior]

06z gfs pulls the same idea again next week with a L developing in NEGOM then moves west and blows up on the coast of LA.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Best Track...

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2010081012,   , BEST,   0, 255N,  830W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ, 

[KWT]

06z GFDL still produces a hurricane out of this and pressure down to about 980mbs, which certainly would make for an interesting few days for sure!

Makes landfall on Friday on this run...

[sphelps8681]

More models shifting west on this run.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_94.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Im in agreeance with that...maybe even a smidge more left.

[KWT]

Yeah that is quite a bit more to the west, Texas coming into play at this rate!

Also obviously the longer it has over the water, the more interesting this whole set-up becomes!

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm more concerned with 0z & 12z opposed to 6z & 18z, but we are talking within 5 days now.

[DTWright]

Left, Right, Left, Right . . . Let the shifting begin . .

[HURAKAN]

764
WHXX01 KWBC 101220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100810 1200 100811 0000 100811 1200 100812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 83.0W 26.1N 84.5W 27.0N 86.3W 27.7N 87.8W
BAMD 25.5N 83.0W 25.8N 84.7W 26.6N 86.7W 27.6N 88.8W
BAMM 25.5N 83.0W 26.0N 84.7W 26.7N 86.7W 27.5N 88.6W
LBAR 25.5N 83.0W 25.8N 84.4W 26.4N 85.9W 27.1N 87.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100812 1200 100813 1200 100814 1200 100815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.6N 89.3W 30.3N 91.5W 32.9N 93.4W 34.1N 94.3W
BAMD 28.5N 90.7W 30.1N 93.7W 32.1N 96.1W 34.2N 96.7W
BAMM 28.3N 90.3W 30.0N 93.1W 31.9N 95.5W 33.5N 97.2W
LBAR 27.8N 89.0W 29.2N 91.2W 30.7N 92.2W 32.5N 91.5W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.5N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 204DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Once again the SHIPS aren't very agressive with this one it has to be said...the models really aren't all that keen on this system are they, though obviously the longer it has over water the better.

Certainly is a shift westward though today so far.

[Dean4Storms]

The only models there with a big shift west is the BAMM models and they are tropical models for a reason, they are pretty much useless as to the synoptics with the weather above 30N. There will be some fluctuations with the models from west to east as the depth of this storm and timing will mean everything, but just don't see anything TS or stronger being moved by the low level flow all the way to TX. for now.

[KWT]

Really is going to depend on how deep this one gets, if the center does set-up west of Key West near the current strong MLC that is pretty deep. That being said I'd have thought the models are pretty close to the mark now.

I think the GFDL/HWRF final landfalling spot looks about right to me right now...

[ROCK]

The EURO in a few hours should shed better light. As I said last night, that me and IVAN were debating, there was a leftward shift and we know how right bias the GFDL and HWRF can be...

I will keep it at TX/LA border for now....

[Weatherfreak000]

The EURO in a few hours should shed better light. As I said last night, that me and IVAN were debating, there was a leftward shift and we know how right bias the GFDL and HWRF can be...

I will keep it at TX/LA border for now....

But...the EURO shifted East yes?

[ROCK]

The EURO in a few hours should shed better light. As I said last night, that me and IVAN were debating, there was a leftward shift and we know how right bias the GFDL and HWRF can be...

I will keep it at TX/LA border for now....

But...the EURO shifted East yes?

I was getting my info from the ECM site....Ivan from the eastern site....different resolutions....here is the map I was looking at...

really both do not develop it at all so both can be thrown out in the garbage at this point.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 10081000!/