ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

TAFB also at T1.0. No classification this evening based on these T-numbers. What will we find tomorrow?

TAFB, JL, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=

[supercane]

00Z best track update from ATCF:

AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 231N, 462W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Edit: Just noted cycloneye posted it also.

[supercane]

From the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 082357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

<snip to remove Colin info>

A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N45W HAS CUT OFF FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 46W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 43W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

TAFB also at T1.0. No classification this evening based on these T-numbers. What will we find tomorrow?

TAFB, JL, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=

Yeah that explains the reason why they didn't upgrade, I'm a little surprised its as low as 1.0, esp given the clear LLC and the convection thats present, even if the convection is a little displaced.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

13:55 UTC Aqua/Terra satellite image of 93L.

[supercane]

06Z Best Track update from ATCF:

AL, 93, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 229N, 476W, 25, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 229N, 463W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[supercane]

T numbers remaining steady at 1.0 from SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0545 UTC 22.9N 47.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
08/2345 UTC 23.0N 46.3W T1.0/1.0 93L
08/1745 UTC 22.8N 45.0W T1.0/1.0 93L

[supercane]

Still generally under an anticyclone but not a lot of convection on this UW-CIMSS TCTrak analysis with sat, obs, shear added:

[supercane]

Early morning vis equally stark:

[supercane]

Microwave from AMSR-E also shows bare circulation without convection:

[supercane]

TWO still keeps up hope with 70% development probability in 48hr.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN <snip>

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA <snip>

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N46W IS LOCATED NORTH OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 47W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 41W-50W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED A STRONG WIND
FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THIS WIND
FIELD LARGELY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-47W. CURRENTLY LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.

<snip>

[KWT]

Well this one has somewhat gone down the pan thats for sure, convection much less impressive right now.

[AJC3]

Well this one has somewhat gone down the pan thats for sure, convection much less impressive right now.

Starting to see some limited convective phartage fire over the northern semicircle again. Certainly a well-defined low level vort...so all it really needs to do is start blowing up more significant/persistent deep convection that it has been doing.

[cycloneye]

More defined than this circulation you wont see many times.But needs a little cover by convection to then take off.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cryomaniac]

Not quite saying "A TD could form at any time" just yet, but the language is headed that way.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Over here in the Wpac we've seen quite a fair number of similar type of naked disturbances over last last season or two. It made my friend and I jokingly dub the phrase "drywall" and this certainly seems to be a classic example of one at the moment!

[SootyTern]

A lot of west motion recently of the LLC; seems to have stopped lifting off to the NW for now. Heading towards-huge surprise here-an enormous ULL.

[hurricaneCW]

It's running out of time to develop with the shear in its path and the eventual recurve to the graveyard. Not much more than a TD in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 232N, 480W, 30, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

The only change in this 12z best track is the winds up to 30kts.