ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Ntxw]

I guess a ridge was in place since July except when Nicole and Paula passed by.

If I recall for those two systems correctly you had a Bermuda high steering with a digging trough. This one is centered over the Bahamas to Florida that's currently being worked in from the west. Different setups.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Now though we are entering a period of time where troughs are becoming stronger with more frequency. So we will have to remain vigilant with regards to Richard.

[x-y-no]

12z GFDL cuts across Yucatan, has a cat1 hurricane heading NE towards Florida north of Tampa (maybe big bend).

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL cuts across Yucatan, has a cat1 hurricane heading NE towards Florida north of Tampa (maybe big bend).

Yeah, GFDL coming in slower and further west. It is finally seeing a ridge over the Florida peninsula and not ramming right into it.

[clfenwi]

In line with x-y-no's remark, the 12Z GFDL is a bit to the left of its previous run in the mid-term; bringing it a bit more over the Yucatan Peninsula, before making the sharp turn to the north-east towards the upper west coast of the Florida peninsula.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFDL track looks very reasonable to me.

[cycloneye]

GFDL did not follow GFS into Belize.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the latest GFDL run is a very interesting one. Trending more toward the NE GOM/ Big Bend area near Cedar Key. Also, if it took that track, Richard would be a sheared tropical storm, but would definitely bring some much, much badly needed rain to the Florida peninsula, particularly the northern half.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET is to the left of the 00Z run; looking at the coordinates, seems to be similar to the GFS/NOGAPS/CMS solutions.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.10.2010

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 80.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2010 16.6N 80.7W WEAK
00UTC 22.10.2010 16.1N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2010 15.4N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2010 16.3N 81.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2010 16.3N 83.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2010 16.4N 84.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.10.2010 16.7N 86.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2010 17.2N 88.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2010 18.2N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.10.2010 19.6N 92.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.10.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Blown Away]

HWRF is slower which is a step in the right direction. Being the HWRF is the right outlier and has it over western Cuba at 114 hours. Look at what the 12z GFS has waiting for it, a bigger and expansive ridge over S.Florida. If the HWRF slows down even more, it is going to hit the ridge on future runs.

12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gis

Anything is always possible but if you look at climatology/records, VERY few hurricanes that formed in the NW Caribbean in late October and moved into the GOM landfalled west of the Appalachicola area.

[SouthDadeFish]

As it has been already said, the strength of this storm will be a key factor to its track. The weaker solutions are farther south, while the stronger solutions are farther north. Take your pick.

[wxman57]

12z GFDL cuts across Yucatan, has a cat1 hurricane heading NE towards Florida north of Tampa (maybe big bend).

Where do you get the GFDL out beyond 126 hrs? I show the 5-day point at 26.9N/85.2W, which is about 150 miles WSW of Tampa. Or maybe you're just extrapolating?

[wxman57]

12z GFDL cuts across Yucatan, has a cat1 hurricane heading NE towards Florida north of Tampa (maybe big bend).

Where do you get the GFDL out beyond 126 hrs? I show the 5-day point at 26.9N/85.2W, which is about 150 miles WSW of Tampa. Or maybe you're just extrapolating?

12Z GFDL is a good bit west and A LOT slower than the 06Z run (west of Tampa vs. off the Carolinas at day 5). That makes sense, if it's not picked up immediately it would give more time for the ridge to build into Florida, pushing the track up the peninsula (or further).

[Ivanhater]

HWRF is slower which is a step in the right direction. Being the HWRF is the right outlier and has it over western Cuba at 114 hours. Look at what the 12z GFS has waiting for it, a bigger and expansive ridge over S.Florida. If the HWRF slows down even more, it is going to hit the ridge on future runs.

12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gis

Anything is always possible but if you look at climatology/records, VERY few hurricanes that formed in the NW Caribbean in late October and moved into the GOM landfalled west of the Appalachicola area.

Fair enough, but statistically speaking, storms do hit the northern Gulf in October and November and will happen again. Will this one? I don't know. I think it would be even more rare for a storm to ram into a ridge over S. Florida given the pattern many models are showing.

[Blown Away]

HWRF is slower which is a step in the right direction. Being the HWRF is the right outlier and has it over western Cuba at 114 hours. Look at what the 12z GFS has waiting for it, a bigger and expansive ridge over S.Florida. If the HWRF slows down even more, it is going to hit the ridge on future runs.

12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gis

Anything is always possible but if you look at climatology/records, VERY few hurricanes that formed in the NW Caribbean in late October and moved into the GOM landfalled west of the Appalachicola area.

Fair enough, but statistically speaking, storms due hit the northern Gulf in October and November and will happen again. Will this one? I don't know. I think it would be even more rare for a storm to ram into a ridge over S. Florida given the pattern many models are showing.

I agree, IMO if the GFS is correct with the ridge Richard will end up buried over CA/Yucatan. Climatology says it's very unlikely a strong cane will be forced N or NW out of the Caribbean into NGOM coast west of Appalachicola.
I never forget Kate!

[Ivanhater]

Yes Blown Away, Kate is never forgotten along the Panhandle. This system is going to be very interesting. BTW, I don't think this is the last Caribbean system this year. S. Florida will be under the gun this season IMO.

[sjmballer]

is tx/la out of the clear? what are the odds of hitting in our area...

[plasticup]

GDFL is showing a high Cat 4 hurricane at the Yucatan landfall. I can't believe that, but stranger things have happened.

[Blown Away]

is tx/la out of the clear? what are the odds of hitting in our area...

Pretty slim this time of year, just to many fronts swinging down kicking these storms NE. If you see Rock posting in this forum then the chances for a Texas storm have increased.