ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[plasticup]

One of the first clear visible shots this morning:

[KWT]

Well those Vis images look real amazing with Igor and Julia in full glory, also the 1st Vis image shows Karl as well really well!

I'm still amazed that this has got to 120kts, I don't think anyone could have called it to get that strong!

[DanKellFla]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150859
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

A RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS WAS
MOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. JULIA IS STILL STRENGTHENING...

That is the understatment of this hurricane season. Thanks for the pictures. Those are amazing.

[brunota2003]

Well Julia, it was a good run...but your luck has just about come to a close...ADT #s falling rapidly, and the rapid dissipation flag has been tripped. I give her another 12 hours as a major, IMO...we can squeeze out two more high ace advisories!

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 17:44:06 N Lon : 31:42:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.1 4.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Center Temp : -46.5C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[Cyclone1]

4 Category 4's. Hasn't happened since 2005.

Edit: wrong, sorry. Forgot about Omar. 2008. Disregard.

Still, I never expected to get out 4th category 4 out of Julia. I'm surprised I woke up to anything above a category 1.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look a bit weaker, the problem with this evolution is that its a fine line between very favourable set-up and a much less favourable set-up....a good example of that was Opal in 1995, it bombed out but once it lost that upper support the system weakens...

I'd be amazed if it weakened to that extent beause Opal got a huge dry air injection as well from the Gulf States but I suspect it will weaken.

[Macrocane]

I was expecting a major but not a cat 4, what an interesting season is 2010.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

:eek: I was expecting a major but not a cat 4, what an interesting season is 2010.

I weren't even expecting a major when I went to bed last night, I thought a 2 was probable but a category-4, wow that was mind blowing to be honest!

Thats why I love the tropics, expect the unexpected!

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 12, 2010091512, , BEST, 0, 177N, 322W, 115, 950, HU

115 knots

[KWT]

Impressive to see Julia is now the same strength as Igor, both at 115kts, who'd have thought that 48hrs ago!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[plasticup]

Looking at the overnight images I was skeptical of the intensity estimates, but that shot is impressive.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Julia has consistently looked more spectacular on visible than on infrared. These are the kind of storms you REALLY wish you had Recon for.

Who knows before the satellite era, there may have been other Cat 4's (or Cat 5's?) in that region that we don't know about.

Lesson learned with this - Cape Verde might want to get hurricane preparedness in order. If this happened a few hundred miles to the east, they would have been shocked with a major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Remains beautiful

[FLpanhandle91]

Julia is just finishing an EWRC I believe and will intensify a little more within the next few hours.

[HURAKAN]

Unlike most major hurricanes, Julia isn't a friend of infrared images!!

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 12, 2010091518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 330W, 105, 956, HU

down to cat 3

[Ptarmigan]

Somehow, I knew that Julia would be a major hurricane.