ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Well they are going to upgrade it to 65kts, wouldn't be shocking to see 70kts though in the NE quadrant.

Next pass will be through the NE quadrant so then we shall see what it really is...

[NEXRAD]

973mb is really low for a 60-knot storm. I can't seem to find it at the moment, but many years ago I compiled data from storms since the 1880's based on intensity and pressure, then found the minimum and maximum recorded pressures for each 5-knots of intensity plus the average. If I recall right, 973mb is a higher end pressure for a mid-range Cat 1 storm under typical circumstances.

- Jay
South Florida

At 976 mb, Hurricane Dean (2007) had 100 mph winds, and was a category 2 hurricane

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

Thanks for this info. I should've wrote "lower end pressure". As with most of my afternoons, I was plugging away with MATLAB - so my mind isn't working with numbers as well tonight. I don't recall many 60/65 knot storms having 973mb pressure while over water and not weakening from a prior greater intensity.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

Plane will make second pass from NE to SW shortly.

[brunota2003]

Those 45 and 50 knot winds are a pretty long way from the center...I'm thinking they might find winds (flight level) between 85 and 90 knots in a couple of small spots on this run.

[KWT]

They found 45-50kts earlier on in the afternoon as far out as they would go before they headed towards a center pass in both the NW/NE quadrants so its nothing too amazing yet...

That being said I think we will see winds at FL that justify hurricane status so something above 80-85kts at FL looks probabe IMO...

[cycloneye]

Plane leaving

What happened is the question.

[drezee]

likely not, just going up to 700mb as it is a hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Probably an equipment failure or something.

It is well beyond the 700mb level now.

[KWT]

What we aren't going to know how strong the NE quadrant is?!

Ah well NHC will upgrade for certain now based of Dvorak in that case.

[brunota2003]

Hope they didnt run into graupel like they did a few years ago...that stuff will ground a plane in a heartbeat for weeks with damage.

[NEXRAD]

Are we sure the flight is outbound now? Perhaps it's heading to sample that really deep convection to Alex's NE?

- Jay
South Florida

[brunota2003]

It's way too high...the last post had it going into the 500mbs

[CrazyC83]

Next mission isn't until about 4 am?

[cycloneye]

Next mission departs at 3 AM EDT.

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 30/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1101A ALEX
C. 30/0700Z
D. 24.1N 95.3W
E. 30/0830Z TO 30/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[CrazyC83]

They might be trying to fix whatever problem they were having, since they leveled out around 500mb for a bit.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like radar problems.

[CrazyC83]

Twitter - wxchannel Per NHC: #HurricaneHunters had radar problem and had to return. But...NHC expects to upgrade to Hurricane #Alex at 11pm advisory.

Hopefully they can push up the next flight so at least it gets there for 0600Z. Not sure if they will though.

[brunota2003]

That sucks =[ Hopefully it wasn't because of turbulence!

[Kingarabian]

Twitter - wxchannel Per NHC: #HurricaneHunters had radar problem and had to return. But...NHC expects to upgrade to Hurricane #Alex at 11pm advisory.

Hopefully they can push up the next flight so at least it gets there for 0600Z. Not sure if they will though.

Glad there safe.

[littlevince]

No more data since they flew over that NE storm, at 01:46z. Hope it's just a coincidence and everything is ok.
Does anyone know if the plane has only one weather radar?