ATL: KARL - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Has been the last few nights...1:10-1:15

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW

[Steve]

GFDL
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... lLoop.html

[KWT]

GFDL makes 92L quite strong from the looks of things and looks rather realistic in terms of track as well...but we will see, quite a few models now don't do anything with 92L at all...

[Steve]

It is stronger than the ECMWF which heads for BOC as does CMC (in 108 hours but weaker) and the UKMET. HWRF is more northerly and slower. Like you said, other models are not doing much with it, so it is a watching period. Like I said in the other thread though, 92L has some energy and is pulsing up nicely tonight.

[tailgater]

How long has this chart been on the NHC site.

[jlauderdal]

How long has this chart been on the NHC site.

i dont know but it doesnt tell us much unless we want a basic geography lesson

[gatorcane]

It is stronger than the ECMWF which heads for BOC as does CMC (in 108 hours but weaker) and the UKMET. HWRF is more northerly and slower. Like you said, other models are not doing much with it, so it is a watching period. Like I said in the other thread though, 92L has some energy and is pulsing up nicely tonight.

Most of the models shoot this west towards the western Carib. That is where I think it is headed also. Don't think it gains enough latitude to pose a threat to Florida. Should stay far to the south as ridging sits over Florida and Bahamas. Now if this were October, could be a much different setup indeed.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100911 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  1200   100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  63.6W   14.8N  65.4W   15.5N  67.4W   16.2N  69.5W
BAMD    14.0N  63.6W   14.7N  65.9W   15.3N  68.2W   15.8N  70.6W
BAMM    14.0N  63.6W   14.8N  65.8W   15.5N  68.1W   16.2N  70.4W
LBAR    14.0N  63.6W   15.0N  65.6W   16.0N  67.8W   16.9N  69.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200   100916  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  71.6W   17.7N  76.0W   18.6N  81.1W   19.5N  86.1W
BAMD    16.4N  72.9W   17.5N  77.6W   18.7N  83.3W   20.0N  88.7W
BAMM    16.8N  72.7W   18.0N  77.6W   19.2N  83.2W   20.5N  88.6W
LBAR    17.9N  71.9W   20.0N  75.4W   22.3N  78.3W   23.8N  79.6W
SHIP        62KTS          79KTS          91KTS         107KTS
DSHP        62KTS          63KTS          80KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  63.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  61.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  60.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[gatorcane]

In this image below taken by the 500MB chart from the 12Z NAM, you can see the large ridge setting up right over the GOM and Florida at 84 hours. So if 92L decides to develop farther west, it cannot go into GOM or Florida with this kind of setup. That is why the camp of models that bring it west take it right into the Yucatan and Mexico. Now if it develops more quickly, sure it can shoot off the the NW into the Bahamas and east of Florida. In fact that is what the NAM is doing with 92L, shooting it through a weakness east of the United States.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Puerto Rico radar show 92L moving somewhat wnw.

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Puerto Rico radar show 92L moving somewhat wnw.

Cant see far enough south to determine motion, all you are seeing is the northernmost convection.

[ronjon]

In this image below taken by the 500MB chart from the 12Z NAM, you can see the large ridge setting up right over the GOM and Florida at 84 hours. So if 92L decides to develop farther west, it cannot go into GOM or Florida with this kind of setup. That is why the camp of models that bring it west take it right into the Yucatan and Mexico. Now if it develops more quickly, sure it can shoot off the the NW into the Bahamas and east of Florida. In fact that is what the NAM is doing with 92L, shooting it through a weakness east of the United States.

No GC, that weakness is already in the process of closing off and moving east so it'll only nudge 92L north of the islands. From that point on, it'll likely move W-NW under the building ridge, similar to yesterdays CMC and GFDL.

[caneman]

CMC, GFDL, HWRF and NAM seem to have the pattern sniffed out so far. Doesn't mean they will be right in the end though.

[gatorcane]

12z gfs loses it. No development.

[ROCK]

12z gfs loses it. No development.

yeah, and GFS never saw Felix either...

[Ivanhater]

It may not develop, but the GFS dry bias is noted today. GFS for the past few days showed only a couple sprinkles moving through the Caribbean.

Good looking sprinkles

[ROCK]

looks like a developing system to me..over the hottest part of the basin....the question is what entry does it take into the GOM and track thereafter.....

[Steve]

>>looks like a developing system to me..over the hottest part of the basin....the question is what entry does it take into the GOM and track thereafter.....

If the southern alliance models that showed development at 00z are right (GFDL/Euro/UKMET/CMC), and if I had to bet, it would be at some classifiable level on the Yucatan between Tulum and Mahaual.