ATL: GASTON - Models

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Getting to be that time of year!! Anniversary for IKE and Humberto Sept. 13...

[Wx_Warrior]

Some EURO ensembles for Fiona were in the GOM as well.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Getting to be that time of year!! Anniversary for IKE and Humberto Sept. 13...

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

18 HOURS

[KWT]

Models appear to hav gone east with Gaston, if it forms quickly enough I just can't imagine the constant troughing/Fiona remains doing anything but lifting this up...now whether thats enough to save the Islands is the real question IMO...at the moment the models say yes but I bet this shifts westwards with time just like Earl...

No reason at all to think this one is going any further west then most of the other storms, this year is clearly not the type of year for long trackers into the Gulf but then again there is usually one that breaks free of the pattern...but upper conditions suggest a close call again for the NE Caribbean...is this season reminding people a little of 1995 with the constant close calls to the NE CAribbean then recurve pattern...though Earl is further west then Luis which I suppose is the comparable system to Earl...

Also for those that say the ECM is off, the CMC actually also did something similar on its 00z run, got it to about 55-60W at 144hrs then nearly stalled and headed close to due north...
Then again that solution just isn't all that likely...but then again we said that about GFS with Earl and Fiona and it wasn't far wrong...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Upper air pattern will be changing though!

[Ivanhater]

Upper air pattern will be changing though!

Agreed. The ridge will be building off the SE coast about a week from now. Gaston will recurve far out in the ATL or head west.

[South Texas Storms]

i think gaston has the best chance of making it into the gulf this season since alex.

[KWT]

If you look at the heights though there really isn't a ridge building...not a *true* upper high, one that is going to buckle the jet, all we ar seeing still is a pattern that is being trough driven...even with Earl its still being trough driven its just Earl shows what can happen if the timing is spot on. In other words whilst there are ridges its not the type to be able to shunt a system back due west *unless* it perfectly slides into place....for that you really want a closed upper high feature.

My concern is much greater for the NE Caribbean then any part of the basin right now by a long way, the pattern looks good looking at the models to take this one close to the Islands...the 12z GFS was a left outlier BUT it looks much more realistic then some of the other models out there. The E.coast also needs to watch this as may the Bahamas, esp if the models are being overzealous with the timing of the troughing...but I'd be a little surprised if this one becomes a threat to the Gulf at any point down the line, the pattern is just too troughy and progressive for this one not to pick up significant latitude at some point, esp as we are now in September...however as Georges proved in 1998 even that is possible...

ps, WAYYY too soon to even think of calling this a fish...indeed I'm once again worried for the NE Caribbean, possibly even to PR like the 12z GFS...

[Ivanhater]

30 hours

[Ivanhater]

48 hours

[ConvergenceZone]

Models appear to hav gone east with Gaston, if it forms quickly enough I just can't imagine the constant troughing/Fiona remains doing anything but lifting this up...now whether thats enough to save the Islands is the real question IMO...at the moment the models say yes but I bet this shifts westwards with time just like Earl...

No reason at all to think this one is going any further west then most of the other storms, this year is clearly not the type of year for long trackers into the Gulf but then again there is usually one that breaks free of the pattern...but upper conditions suggest a close call again for the NE Caribbean...is this season reminding people a little of 1995 with the constant close calls to the NE CAribbean then recurve pattern...though Earl is further west then Luis which I suppose is the comparable system to Earl...

Also for those that say the ECM is off, the CMC actually also did something similar on its 00z run, got it to about 55-60W at 144hrs then nearly stalled and headed close to due north...
Then again that solution just isn't all that likely...but then again we said that about GFS with Earl and Fiona and it wasn't far wrong...

I think you are looking at what the pattern looks like now KWT. I thought the same thing, but a couple of the mets even mentioned that this has a decent chance of moving into the carib due to the expected change in the pattern.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if recurves it looks like a east coast hit based upon the last model runs...

[Ivanhater]

66 hours

[Ivanhater]

84 hours

[KWT]

I'd be supportive of that idea too CZ IF I saw more then just a few subtle hints of a pattern change aloft but I just not seeing them to be honest....on any of the models. Its still broadly the same idea of decent Central Atlantic ridge, west movement to close to 50-55W then a weakness somewhere between 55-70W depending on the models and another upper ridge feature over the states itself...As long as that occurs any hurricane is going to be a risk to the NE Caribbean and then anywhere from say Bermuda to pretty much where Earl is tracking is possible...anything out of that will be just sheer luck with the timings really of the features.

FWIW CZ I think this does get into the NE CAribbean maybe a little south of where Earl went but I think there will be enough troughing still to lift it out...

At this stage in the game though the models are prone to busts, if this was to keep itself going west long enough upto say 77-80W then it'll probably end up tracking right through the Gulf towards Mexico/Texas based on the current upper pattern...

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, You may be right about the recurve, but remember most everyone(including me) thought that
Earl would be a fish and it still has possibility of making landfall.
suzanne joyner. It's "safe" to call for a recurve since that's for typical for CV storms this time of year,
so it's fun to think of the less likely options that can still happen

[Ivanhater]

96 hours

[South Texas Storms]

kwt, so you think that if this manages to get into the gulf its a tex/mex threat?

[Ivanhater]

102 hours