ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Last set was almost full of 30,s,well north of center.

[KWT]

Looks like recon will go through the NW quadrant first, will give us a good indication of here it might be, if we aren't far from hurricane strength, we will probably find it in the NE quadrant.

[cycloneye]

Looks like they will fly at 850 mb flight level or 80% of reduction.

[tolakram]

I can do images for another hour or so but if anyone wants to take over just yell.

[cycloneye]

After the first pass,I too will step aside.

[cycloneye]

Pressure falls to 990.4 and still plane has not reached center.

[KWT]

Gotta be something below 980mbs I'd have thought given the development of the inner core. Also if the inner core has developed then we shall see a spike as the plane goes through the developing eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Probably around 972mb based on wind/pressure trends from Recon. Got to be a hurricane.

[KWT]

Well it'd be an insane TS if it weren't!

NE quadrant will find Hurricane winds I'm sure.

[tolakram]

972 and no winds. :o

[CrazyC83]

Well it'd be an insane TS if it weren't!

NE quadrant will find Hurricane winds I'm sure.

The only times a TS usually has such a low pressure is at a really high latitude becoming extratropical, or well inland and rapidly weakening.

[tolakram]

My time is up, unfortunately. Someone else will have to take over images please.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the most important set of this mission.

[cycloneye]

Lowest is 973.0. Now looking for the winds.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,you can take over the posting of the obs.

[CrazyC83]

Need an 80 kt FL wind or a 64 kt SFMR wind (barring an unbalance where one could be unrepresentative) for Hurricane Alex. We have had neither so far.

[KWT]

Still nothing really close to being a hurricane, a few rain contimated SMFR reports close to 60kts but they won't count those...NE quadrant is the only area that may have hurricane force winds...

[vacanechaser]

james franklin just said on twc that once the plane goes through the ne quad, he expects hurricane force winds... said they found some just shy of it on the pass through minutes ago...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

From VDM.

L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles

[NEXRAD]

973mb is really low for a 60-knot storm. I can't seem to find it at the moment, but many years ago I compiled data from storms since the 1880's based on intensity and pressure, then found the minimum and maximum recorded pressures for each 5-knots of intensity plus the average. If I recall right, 973mb is a higher end pressure for a mid-range Cat 1 storm under typical circumstances.

- Jay
South Florida