WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.9N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.0N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.3N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.7N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 122.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181325Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 30NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN RADAR
FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON A 181318Z ASCAT PASS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. TY
FANAPI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER CHINA, WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z.//
07fW40181
WTCI RCTP 181800 =
WARNING VALID 191800Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201011 (FANAPI 201011) WARNING =
POSITION 181800Z AT TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ( 24.0N ) ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST ( 123.1E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST 20KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 950 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 43 METER PER SECOND GUST 53 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 190600Z AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ( 23.9N ) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST ( 120.7E )=
24HRS VALID AT 191800Z AT TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ( 24.1N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ( 118.3E )=
48HRS VALID AT 201800Z AT TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ( 25.0N ) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ( 114.4E )=
72HRS VALID AT 211800Z AT TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ( 26.2N ) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE EAST ( 110.9E )=
