ATL: KARL - Models

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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#221 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 10, 2010 8:50 pm

yeah it sure does gatorcane. will we have the same landfall? that is still to be determined. i would have to agree with the 18z gfdl track as of right now.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#222 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:18 pm

00z NAM

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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#223 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:38 pm

00z GFS loses 92L at 18 hours

edit: GFS picks it up weak at 30 hrs and then drops it at 42 hrs
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#224 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:31 pm

so the gfs loses 92l again...do most models still develop this?
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#225 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:33 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:so the gfs loses 92l again...do most models still develop this?


The strongest model on intensity was the 18z GFDL,making it a cat 3 before landfall at Yucatan.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#226 Postby Riptide » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:36 pm

It is time to give this one up. There is no point in beating a dead horse.
Gaston Redux, IMO.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#227 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:41 pm

Riptide wrote:It is time to give this one up. There is no point in beating a dead horse.
Gaston Redux, IMO.


Well obviously the NHC doesn't agree.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#228 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:42 pm

i dont understand whats going on with this one. it had lots of model support a few nights ago, then lost most of it. now nhc is giving it its highest chance to develop yet, and it has a little more mode support. i just dont have a clue what this will turn out to be.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#229 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:43 pm

Even though the 00Z GFS doesn't do anything with 92L, it does show a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean in the long range forming from a low by the Windward Islands
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#230 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:45 pm

caneseddy wrote:Even though the 00Z GFS doesn't do anything with 92L, it does show a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean in the long range forming from a low by the Windward Islands


yeah but thats wayyy long range.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#231 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:46 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:i dont understand whats going on with this one. it had lots of model support a few nights ago, then lost most of it. now nhc is giving it its highest chance to develop yet, and it has a little more mode support. i just dont have a clue what this will turn out to be.


If you recall Gaston had very high chances of redevelopment from the NHC as well but...Well we know how that ended up...

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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#232 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:53 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
caneseddy wrote:Even though the 00Z GFS doesn't do anything with 92L, it does show a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean in the long range forming from a low by the Windward Islands


yeah but thats wayyy long range.


I know, but I posted the summary of the run in the long range thread..all I have to say is if that run pans out (and this far out, a very low chance of it verifying), South Florida and Eastern Gulf better pay attention
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#233 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:07 am

EURO will be out soon....shed some light on things....I think as of right now a Yuc- FL pass into the GOM is a good bet...

where are the EURO peeps tonight? :lol:
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#234 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:08 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
caneseddy wrote:Even though the 00Z GFS doesn't do anything with 92L, it does show a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean in the long range forming from a low by the Windward Islands


yeah but thats wayyy long range.


yeah that is la la land after about 144-196hr.....that goes for all of the models as well...there is a reason some only go out so far....
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#235 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:26 am

Had high school football duty tonight...

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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#236 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:33 am

Image
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#237 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:36 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Image


what run is that? tonights?
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#238 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:37 am

correct
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#239 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:38 am

Image
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#240 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 11, 2010 1:39 am

must have come out early.....yep buries it in the BOC....
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