ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Ok, lets not talk about languages and return to discuss about developing 95L right now,Yes it looks much better and I am with Aric on 60% at 2 PM TWO.

Look at the banding already showing up.

[ColinDelia]

Bullish since this morning

[HUC]

The system seems in way of organisation, and things can go rapidly!

[Hugo1989]

Ok, lets not talk about languages and return to discuss about developing 95L right now,Yes it looks much better and I am with Aric on 60% at 2 PM TWO.

Look at the banding already showing up.

Very aggressive with 60% Cicloneye, just remember that his prognosis fail last night.

[Aric Dunn]

Bullish since this morning

its a tad displaced!!.. lol

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like that circulation center is starting to tighten up a bit there Cycloneye.

[ColinDelia]

Bullish since this morning

its a tad displaced!!.. lol

Yeah no doubt about that. I could easily see this taking 48 hours to develop. Though one never knows.

[Aric Dunn]

I just meant the image was displaced not the actual vorticity ...

[ColinDelia]

I just meant the image was displaced not the actual vorticity ...

yeah i figured that out right after i posted and was looking again. lol .. i wasnt fast enuff to delete

[ColinDelia]

Looks to me like the 12z GFS takes this to depression status in 42 hours. This is the shortest period of time it has forecast that on this storm so far.

[cycloneye]

With each new frame, it is looking better.

[x-y-no]

its a tad displaced!!.. lol

Keep in mind, that's vorticity, not winds. What that shows is an elongated circulation extending from about 10N31W to 12N25W.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the 12z GFS misses the trough this time..

[cycloneye]

I would look at the 15N-50W location to see if the NE Caribbean will have any threat from this. If it passes north of that location, is bye, but if it tracks south of there,then the threat increases.

[Aric Dunn]

its a tad displaced!!.. lol

Keep in mind, that's vorticity, not winds. What that shows is an elongated circulation extending from about 10N31W to 12N25W.

yes ... but the image is just still displaced the greatest vorticity is in an area SE of the trough axis

[Cyclone1]

Who wants to bet that this will wait 6 days to develop and end up weaker than Colin?

It wouldn't surprise me, these days.

[RL3AO]

Who wants to bet that this will wait 6 days to develop and end up weaker than Colin?

It wouldn't surprise me, these days.

Is that your prediction?

[Cyclone1]

Who wants to bet that this will wait 6 days to develop and end up weaker than Colin?

It wouldn't surprise me, these days.

Is that your prediction?

Not honestly, no, but 2010 would.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

95L has now begun to organize after its convective wane last night. Looking at satellite imagery banding features are slowly beginning to develop. The overall structure of 95L also looks a bit more consolidated as well. The surface circulation is also getting better defined as noted on total percipitable water. 95L is also under the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation providing a moister environment for development. Currently I would give this area a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, however, it will take time and it may not become a tropical depression until Monday (conservatively).

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Danielle is definitely forming now at about 32.0 and 11.0. Not much doubt.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html