ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Hurricane]

i will bet a 20 dollar donation to s2k that this system gets west of 92.

Hey, thats a pretty cool thing to do!!

[ROCK]

compare that to the 12Z and you got some different solutions. ...12Z splits 94 send a piece of energy into TX/LA border with the other into MS...0Z all into AL/MS but nothing more than a blob...a really weak blob....

[Ivanhater]

compare that to the 12Z and you got some different solutions. ...12Z splits 94 send a piece of energy into TX/LA border with the other into MS...0Z all into AL/MS but nothing more than a blob...a really weak blob....

Current trends show an organizing tropical storm imo..I don't really see anything to hamper further development..

[ROCK]

agree....the SHIPS doesnt show much shear to be concerned with....That ULL next door will probably help in ventilation / lift until it can get some convection consolidated over a center. right now it aint going nowhere fast with current steering...I think FL is helping it also by tighening up the weak LLC...

yeah, I know..going against some current guidance I have to admit.... Thats why I think the EURO tonight will be interesting.

[Ivanhater]

00z UKMET into Mississippi

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[ROCK]

why is the HWRF at 982MB and 60+knot winds while a ways inland?

guess in need to go to eastern and pull this run....

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... est066.gif

farther west than last run....strengthing over land also...

60hrs....middle of LA...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MSL060.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Disliking this hint of a western trend

[Ivanhater]

00Z is pretty spot on to the 12z run

SE Louisiana marshland won't do much to weaken it

[ROCK]

Disliking this hint of a western trend

and we know the right bias of the GFDL and HWRF....

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MSL072.gif

this is the 6Z HWRF...ok a tiny tad more west.....

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... est084.gif

[Ivanhater]

I'm not seeing a west trend at all

Euro..UKMET, Canadian all into Mississippi /Alabama area

Wxman mentioned earlier to look at the band earlier into SE Louisiana and the wind flow..not getting further west than that

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forecasted

That band of clouds extending NW from the disturbance to SE LA gives a good clue as to the steering currents. I don't think it makes much difference where it forms, the winds seem to be blowing toward SE LA. Would be nice if we could get some rain out of it, but I'm not counting on that.

[Wx_Warrior]

Good...spoke to my brother (KFDM_MET) briefly, he thought east of us as well....i've got to put out a 56-page HS football preview guide.

I do agree that marsh in LA won't do much to slow strengthening.

[ROCK]

I'm not seeing a west trend at all

Euro..UKMET, Canadian all into Mississippi /Alabama area

Wxman mentioned earlier to look at the band earlier into SE Louisiana and the wind flow..not getting further west than that

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forecasted

That band of clouds extending NW from the disturbance to SE LA gives a good clue as to the steering currents. I don't think it makes much difference where it forms, the winds seem to be blowing toward SE LA. Would be nice if we could get some rain out of it, but I'm not counting on that.

here are those bands of clouds NW into LA....currently....loop it...moving west or dry air sucking in from the neighbor ULL?

[Ivanhater]

Extended HWRF

[South Texas Storms]

so as of right now there is no chance at a texas landfall?

[Ikester]

PW's are low on this thing...especially around the core. The GFS doesn't do much with it and that's probably why. Just look at the WV above.

[southerngale]

so as of right now there is no chance at a texas landfall?

Highly unlikely since none of the models show Texas. Trust me, if there's a chance of something hitting Texas, you won't have to ask that question.

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

current steering.....that gives me a clue that its not going to moving much at all for the time being....