ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I went to my weathertap acct. and used the Radarlab HD, looks like the center of the MLC is near 19n 65.7 west and drifting WNW. I also see an outflow racing SW toward PR so I don't think we got anything at the surface quite yet.

TWO's for the Atlantic basin are only released at 2PM; AM and 8 PM; AM.

[Dylan]

I could be very well be wrong, I learned it from a met on weather underground though.

He is very so wrong. 850mb is still in the boundary layer thus low levels.

[cycloneye]

From the latest discussion of the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1028 PM AST MON JUL 19 2010

.UPDATE...ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT...MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RADAR IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT NEAR 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN. SEVERAL SMW WERE ISSUED DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER 35KT IN THIS AREA. LET EXPIRED ALL FLS`S AND
FFW`S SINCE RIVER LEVELS RETURNED TO NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A
FFA STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 2 PM AST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND
WEATHER OVERNIGHT...TO ADJUST FORECAST WITH ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE EAST...DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. LLVL WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS MAINLY FROM EAST NORTHEAST WILL
SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 20/12Z.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

That's what I'm thinking now. I believe that the lower level extends 6000ft in the atmosphere, whether or not this is correct I don't know.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Dylan]

That's what I'm thinking now. I believe that the lower level extends 6000ft in the atmosphere, whether or not this is correct I don't know.

So are you agreeing with me now or are you contradicting yourself? H85=5000ft=low levels

[Ivanhater]

Outflow is impressive

[Ivanhater]

That's what I'm thinking now. I believe that the lower level extends 6000ft in the atmosphere, whether or not this is correct I don't know.

So are you agreeing with me now or are you contradicting yourself? H85=5000ft=low levels

He is agreeing. Tone it down.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

That's what I'm thinking now. I believe that the lower level extends 6000ft in the atmosphere, whether or not this is correct I don't know.

So are you agreeing with me now or are you contradicting yourself? H85=5000ft=low levels

I'm agreeing with you, I just wanted to know whether or not the lower level reached 6000ft into the atmosphere.

[ROCK]

850MB is lower levels.....come on guys we are all family here...

[MGC]

Yea, a bit of cyclonic spin is noted north of PR....small cyclonic envelope as all the convection south of PR is moving west. Looks like conditions will slowly improve over the next few days so this needs to be watched for development........MGC

[HURAKAN]

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Is this still active?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Is this still active?

Oops! No, that is not, however there is a mission set for Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Is this still active?

No,a new TPOD was issued this morning. Now is for Wednesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 19 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 22/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[AtlanticWind]

LATEST

pretty impressive

[boca]

If their was a center I would put it at 19.2N and 64.9W between the 2 areas of convection. Does anyone agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[MiamiHurricanes10]

If their was a center I would put it at 19.2N and 64.9W between the 2 areas of convection. Does anyone agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

I'm putting it where the mid-level low is located.

[boca]

If their was a center I would put it at 19.2N and 64.9W between the 2 areas of convection. Does anyone agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

I'm putting it where the mid-level low is located.

Where is the mid level circulation at?

[cycloneye]

Boca,you can see it here.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

If their was a center I would put it at 19.2N and 64.9W between the 2 areas of convection. Does anyone agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

I'm putting it where the mid-level low is located.

Where is the mid level circulation at?

I don't know the coordinates as I am using radar imagery, I can tell you that the MLC is located 50 miles to the NE of San Juan.