EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[brunota2003]

I think I'll like it too, but I don't really care for change (especially when the system isn't broken), so it'll take a bit to get used to for me. As long as the actual Forecast Discussion stays the same and in depth! Glad to have Stewart back too, btw =]

[brunota2003]

I think someone had a flashback when they were making the 3 day and 5 day track cones...the ones I see are in black and white! Not to mention that you can't make out much dealing with them.

[KWT]

Yeah the new format looks fine to me. Will be interesting to see whether the convection is currently has sticks this time rather than weakening like it has done around this time.

Givem the outflow direction it seems like the system probably is heading ENE at the moment, I reckon it'll make it to weak TS but not sure it has enough time for anything more really unless it really blows up.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 291246
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
FIRST OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A 29/0323Z ASCAT
OVERPASS...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/05 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH ACTIVE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL BANDING
FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD COURSE...
BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER AND IS IN FACT
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE UNLIKELY SHARP
EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 35-KT WIND VECTORS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THIS CYCLONE MAY
ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION
IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 30C
SSTS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT THIS TREND WILL BE MORE CLOSELY
ASSESSED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SATELLITE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS
FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1200Z 12.9N 93.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Good to have Stewart back with his dicussions.

I'm not sure its going to have 36hrs over water to be honest, but it depends on exactly where the LLC is in relation to the deep convection.

Still looks likely IMO we will get our first EPAC storm of the season.

[HURAKAN]

TD 1-E

[KWT]

Good inflow with the system that on that image and not bad outflow on that northern side either, it seems to have conditions to strengthen somewhat before land though as the discussion noted, land interaction maybe one big limiter to how strong this system could become.

edit- I wouldn't be all that surprised if this was already having winds in the convection of 35-40kts sustained.

[cycloneye]

The sea looks rough at El Salvador.

[Macrocane]

Nice cam I didn't know we had a cam of La Libertad
Yes the seas have been raw all week, I think it may get worse as the TD approaches Guatemala. The day began with showers in San Salvador then stopped and we even see the sun for a couple of minutes, and the it rained again. I think the rains will become more persistent as the day goes by. I will keep you updated. Guatemala seems to be experiencing the heaviest rains at this time.

[wxman57]

I like the new format of the public advisories as they have more information for the public to read in a quick way.

I agree, it's a vast improvement over the old format. I could never find the lat/lon or wind speed on the old advisories.

Wow! Exciting storm, huh? I'm going biking.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Nice cam I didn't know we had a cam of La Libertad
Yes the seas have been raw all week, I think it may get worse as the TD approaches Guatemala. The day began with showers in San Salvador then stopped and we even see the sun for a couple of minutes, and the it rained again. I think the rains will become more persistent as the day goes by. I will keep you updated. Guatemala seems to be experiencing the heaviest rains at this time.

Off Topic=I posted this cam at the Caribbean-Central America thread at U.S And Caribbean Weather forum on the first page below the Volcano one. For those who dont know,the first post of that mother thread for the Caribbean and Central America has many Web Cams from many parts of the Caribbean & Central America,as well Radars,and Sat images.

[Evil Jeremy]

I also like the new Public Advisory, much more simple to read now, but wow, what happened to the cone?

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather mentions the possibility of re-strengthening of the system next week in the northern Caribbean Sea.

[RL3AO]

Always good to see the name "Stewart" at the bottom of the discussion.

[Macrocane]

The 06z Run of the GFS shows a low (possibly the remnants of TD 01-E) in the Yucatan Peninsula tracking northeastward into florida and the CMC continues to show a stronger system taking the same path.

Canadian 00z 96 hours

GFS o6z 120 hours

[KWT]

AccuWeather mentions the possibility of re-strengthening of the system next week in the northern Caribbean Sea.

I just can't see it happening, the track seems pretty solid now in that it won't be emerging out to sea again anytime soon and the pace of the system is pretty slow so even the energy from the system will probably be draining away by the time it makes it into the Caribbean again...

Never rule it out, but I'd be rather surprised if we got anything from it, even though its happened before.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Tropical Storm Agatha at 8 AM PDT.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

EP, 01, 2010052912, , BEST, 0, 130N, 934W, 35, 1004, TS

[Macrocane]

It seems that land interaction is not affecting the developmnet of Agatha. I will not be able to post updates for a few hours but after that I will keep you informed if anything important happens.

[KWT]

[quote="Macrocane"]The 06z Run of the GFS shows a low (possibly the remnants of TD 01-E) in the Yucatan Peninsula tracking northeastward into florida and the CMC continues to show a stronger system taking the same path.

quote]

Yep that is indeed the remains of TD-1E, however look how quickly the GFS develops a low out of it, taking just 12hrs...I'd be very surprised if that turns out to be correct, though as I said you can't rule out a system in the Caribbean given there will be the leftover energy of this system to come in.

[thetruesms]

This is why I hate going to bed on storm that's looking better - something interesting always happens while I'm asleep. But with the week I've had, I was surprised I made it as late as I did