ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Should become a TD again I suspect but yeah unless the convection to the south provides a real surprise we will likely see this peak at a TD...

[ColinDelia]

I can't find a single buoy over 15 kts other than gusts. I don't see that this could be considered a TD yet. Well, unless we want to use TD5 as precedence itself (when it was in SE Gulf).

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[hurricaneCW]

When we all thought it would be in a great environment to strengthen, it has now become unfavorable. All that TS talk to quickly going down the drain with this one. Just another reminder of how the season has been so far. 2010 is the year of the ULL's and Shear.

[Stormcenter]

I still think this system has a better chance the second time around of becoming a TD again and then maybe a TS before landfall. IMO

[Aric Dunn]

I have seen systems that were initiated that looked worse than this. I think it is probably a 30-35 mph TD. Chances that it will become a TS might be slightly lower on my end...maybe 50-50.

I agree it could technically be a TD but I have been looking hard to find a observation that is higher than 25mph even in the deepest convection... the pressure have risen and nothing points towards and more organization than what has occurred over night. The shear is just too much for this little system.. the shear axis is so close that any shifting of the upper high farther south would put the system in a much improved upper environment. The increased divergence aloft will help maintain some of the convection maybe long enough to get it in a better position in about 6 to 12 hours.

[DTWright]

They are still though saying there is a high chance of it becoming a TS before landfall so the fat lady ain't sang yet . . .

[Stormcenter]

The thing is I don't see this changing for the forseeable future.
I mean honestly there is nothing out there right now except for
Ex-TD5 that may threaten the U.S. mainland for at least the next 10
days. IMO

When we all thought it would be in a great environment to strengthen, it has now become unfavorable. All that TS talk to quickly going down the drain with this one. Just another reminder of how the season has been so far. 2010 is the year of the ULL's and Shear.

[Stormcenter]

I would agree with that 100%.
It really won't take much to make this a TD.
We've all seen many "sheared" systems still
classified a TD in that passed.

They are still though saying there is a high chance of it becoming a TS before landfall so the fat lady ain't sang yet . . .

[KWT]

When we all thought it would be in a great environment to strengthen, it has now become unfavorable. All that TS talk to quickly going down the drain with this one. Just another reminder of how the season has been so far. 2010 is the year of the ULL's and Shear.

How ironic that its *nothing* to do with a ULL but actually the ULH is just too strong...I think there is just too much energy in the southern belt of the jet this year so far which has been juicing up the upper levels too much.

Winds certainly don't see impressive but I'd be surprised if there was no 25kts winds in there.

[ColinDelia]

I don't think that much has changed in the past few days with this. It was never a given that a tropical depression would form. The NHC has never given this greater than a 60% chance of becoming a depression (within 48 hours). We're still looking at a good number of hours in an environment that has some positives and negatives for development and it is just too close of a call with a number of factors to know exactly how that will play out. it's pretty easy to think about what could cause this strengthen and it is just as easy to think of what could keep it from strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

When we all thought it would be in a great environment to strengthen, it has now become unfavorable. All that TS talk to quickly going down the drain with this one. Just another reminder of how the season has been so far. 2010 is the year of the ULL's and Shear.

How ironic that its *nothing* to do with a ULL but actually the ULH is just too strong...I think there is just too much energy in the southern belt of the jet this year so far which has been juicing up the upper levels too much.

Winds certainly don't see impressive but I'd be surprised if there was no 25kts winds in there.

well thats not entirely true..lol look to the east of the system.. its is as always between a upper high and ULL lol

[StormClouds63]

From favorable conditions to "marginally" conducive ... why should we be surprised. The underwhelming season of 2010 continues.

[KWT]

ColinDelia, seems a reasonable idea, conditions were going to be pretty condusive but the problem is the ULH has placed itself in a little bit of a poor place which has really helped to strengthen the shear very close to the system...ah well another one kept in check.

[tailgater]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Regardless of the shear maps reality shows a highly sheared system with little or no convection to the north and east.

Yes painfully obvious

[Stormcenter]

Let's forget the shear for a moment and look at overall
structure of the system which IMO looks great. If and
that's a big if the shear lessens then I think this will become
a TD then a TS before landfall.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Brent]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Regardless of the shear maps reality shows a highly sheared system with little or no convection to the north and east.

Yep, I'm here in Pensacola Beach and it's a near perfect day other than a couple of 5-minute showers so far. The Gulf is calm too with barely any waves. Never would know a potential TD is not far away.

[ROCK]

the LLC is moving towards the deep convection...that is where the lower pressure will be..which is west or tad south of west.....you guys are killing me. ....can you give it another 6 hours and let it stack....if it doesnt you can continue on with your season over proclamations....2010 year of the ULL and shear? We have shear and ULL's every year......could it be that the MJO is unfavorabel right now..

no need to panic....there will be plenty to look at this weekend and probably more than one...

[tailgater]

Watching the latest hi-res Visible loop the LLC is still elongated but not near as much as it was early this morning. If you go out to the wideview( mid) you can also see the rather large Circ.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html